Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold No, while the market favors Yes (52%). 8 of 13 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Will Burgos CF win on 2026-10-26?

8 of 13 top Polymarket traders hold No (62%) · No at 48¢ · $8K held · ended Oct 26

Yes52¢No48¢Ended Mon, Oct 26, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 62%

2 arb excluded

Total Value

$7.9K

Combined PnL

$373.44

Smart Money Entry

46.4¢ → 48¢

+3% since entry · 8 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 48%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Side priced 30–50¢0.30–0.50 lost −6.5 % a trade pooled (n 2,793), a little worse than the plain consensus.

Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

8 of 13 top traders (62%)Underdog side (market favors Yes 52%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed8 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes52%

No48%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No8 traders

Total Value$2.8K

Total Shares5,616

Combined PnL+$316.78

Yes5 traders

Total Value$2.5K

Total Shares4,649

Combined PnL+$56.66

No — 62%Yes — 38%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
RN1CTR	Noavg 33.1¢	$1.3K	$1.8K	+$529.94	54% 54083-45963 (100046)
-R -reefARB<$100	Noavg 62¢	$1.5K	$1.4K	-$162.16	52% 456-423 (879)
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 50¢	$675.68	$702.7	+$27.03
└ No leg	Noavg 62¢	$837.84	$648.65	-$189.19
UP UpTheBluesARB<$100	Yesavg 67.1¢	$1.7K	$1.3K	-$342.77	59% 43129-29562 (72691)
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 67.1¢	$1.2K	$934.23	-$271.32
└ No leg	Noavg 56.7¢	$466.97	$395.52	-$71.45
GO GoalLineGhost	Yesavg 63.8¢	$1.3K	$1.1K	-$224.74	50% 23388-23002 (46390)
MI MinevaJ	Yesavg 37.7¢	$804.34	$1.1K	+$280.74	58% 974-714 (1688)
VeryLucky888CTR	Noavg 74.6¢	$429.91	$436.71	+$6.8	58% 39436-28511 (67947)
KY Kyn008CTR	Noavg 74¢	$543.64	$352.63	-$191.01	50% 209-207 (416)
SP spyGoodLuck77	Yesavg 51.5¢	$246.31	$248.71	+$0.01	63% 1715-1023 (2738)
FO fooooolCTR<$100	Noavg 49¢	$74.77	$68.2	-$6.57	50% 10147-10036 (20183)
CA CannaeCTR<$100	Noavg 75.6¢	$92.97	$59.67	-$33.3	53% 15491-13677 (29168)
LE LeLynxMalynx<$100	Yesavg 24¢	$9.08	$22.33	-$0.19	57% 26839-19987 (46826)
poshposhCTR<$100	Noavg 30.9¢	$9.69	$15.05	+$5.36	61% 8719-5662 (14381)
LU LuckyLooCTR<$100	Noavg 48.1¢	$13.13	$13.11	-$0.02	49% 11291-11571 (22862)
LI LilybaeumCTR<$100	Noavg 24.1¢	$5.62	$11.2	+$5.58	62% 13490-8335 (21825)
BI BillBenter2026<$100	Yesavg 47.8¢	$9.55	$10.4	+$0.85	58% 18071-13305 (31376)

RN1CTR

Invested

$1,279.81

Value

$1.8K

PnL

+$529.94

Record

54%

54083-45963 (100046)

-R

-reefARB<$100

Invested

$1,513.51

Value

$1.4K

PnL

-$162.16

Record

52%

456-423 (879)

Both legs:

Invested

$1,672.53

Value

$1.3K

PnL

-$342.77

Record

59%

43129-29562 (72691)

Both legs:

Yes$1,205.5567.1¢-$271.32

No$466.9756.7¢-$71.45

GoalLineGhost

Yes

Invested

$1,319.02

Value

$1.1K

PnL

-$224.74

Record

50%

23388-23002 (46390)

MinevaJ

Yes

Invested

$804.34

Value

$1.1K

PnL

+$280.74

Record

58%

974-714 (1688)

VeryLucky888CTR

Invested

$429.91

Value

$436.71

PnL

+$6.8

Record

58%

39436-28511 (67947)

Kyn008CTR

Invested

$543.64

Value

$352.63

PnL

-$191.01

Record

50%

209-207 (416)

spyGoodLuck77

Yes

Invested

$246.31

Value

$248.71

PnL

+$0.01

Record

63%

1715-1023 (2738)

fooooolCTR<$100

Invested

$74.77

Value

$68.2

PnL

-$6.57

Record

50%

10147-10036 (20183)

CannaeCTR<$100

Invested

$92.97

Value

$59.67

PnL

-$33.3

Record

53%

15491-13677 (29168)

LeLynxMalynx<$100

Yes

Invested

$9.08

Value

$22.33

PnL

-$0.19

Record

57%

26839-19987 (46826)

poshposhCTR<$100

Invested

$9.69

Value

$15.05

PnL

+$5.36

Record

61%

8719-5662 (14381)

LuckyLooCTR<$100

Invested

$13.13

Value

$13.11

PnL

-$0.02

Record

49%

11291-11571 (22862)

LilybaeumCTR<$100

Invested

$5.62

Value

$11.2

PnL

+$5.58

Record

62%

13490-8335 (21825)

BillBenter2026<$100

Yes

Invested

$9.55

Value

$10.4

PnL

+$0.85

Record

58%

18071-13305 (31376)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 48%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Side priced 30–50¢0.30–0.50 lost −6.5 % a trade pooled (n 2,793), a little worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

8 of 13 top traders (62%)Underdog side (market favors Yes 52%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed8 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance50.2%

48.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$99.01

Max Loss

-$100.00

199.0

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.