FC Andorra vs. Burgos CF: Both Teams to Score
2 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold No (50%) · No at 52¢ · $683 held · ended Oct 26
⚖️
Neutral
No
4
No 50%
$682.54
$26.01
48.5¢ → 52¢
+7% since entry · 2 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 52%
No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
- Side priced 50–60¢0.50–0.70 lost −3.2 % a trade pooled (n 3,834).
Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 4 top traders (50%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
LO looppauCTR | Yesavg 99.9¢ | $299.7 | $299.7 | +$0 | 99% 9887-45 (9932) |
 VeryLucky888 | Noavg 48.1¢ | $192 | $208 | +$16 | 58% 39436-28511 (67947) |
LU LuckyLoo | Noavg 49¢ | $155.33 | $164.84 | +$9.51 | 49% 11291-11571 (22862) |
VA Vampiro1CTR<$100 | Yesavg 95¢ | $10 | $10 | +$0.5 | 76% 2919-904 (3823) |
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
52.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.