Will FC Andorra win on 2026-10-26?
2 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold No (50%) · No at 53¢ · $799 held · ends Oct 26
⚖️
Neutral
No
4
No 50%
$799.18
$12.73
52.6¢ → 53¢
+1% since entry · 2 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 53%
No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
- Side priced 50–60¢0.50–0.70 lost −3.2 % a trade pooled (n 3,834).
Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 4 top traders (50%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 us391 | Noavg 53¢ | $556.09 | $556.09 | -$0 | 51% 1584-1532 (3116) |
 VeryLucky888 | Noavg 51¢ | $285 | $159 | +$12 | 58% 37579-27344 (64923) |
MA marketmeshCTR<$100 | Yesavg 46¢ | $67.58 | $69.05 | +$0.73 | 59% 86-60 (146) |
 HRTradingCTR<$100 | Yesavg 47¢ | $15.04 | $15.04 | +$0 | 55% 2163-1776 (3939) |
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
53.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.