Albacete Balompié vs. CD Eldense: O/U 2.5

2 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold Over (25%) · Over at 81¢ · $5K held · ended Oct 25

Over81¢Under19¢Ended Sun, Oct 25, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Over

Consensus Traders

Over 25%

2 arb excluded

Total Value

$4.8K

Combined PnL

$291.95

Smart Money Entry

47.6¢ → 80.5¢

+69% since entry · 2 traders

Research grade

NeutralOver at 81%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Spread or totalSpreads and totals: −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)0.70–0.90 was about break-even after costs, +0.4 % a trade (n 4,327); 0.60–0.95 with 70 %+ and $10k+ +2.9 % (n 955). The consensus beats its price by 2–3 points here, about what the costs take.

Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Over

2 of 8 top traders (25%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed6 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Over81%

Under20%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Over2 traders

Total Value$3.7K

Total Shares7,004

Combined PnL+$380

Under6 traders

Total Value$977.92

Total Shares2,174

Combined PnL-$88.05

Over — 25%Under — 75%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
E0 0xe020...f39b	Overavg 47.6¢	$3.3K	$3.7K	+$380	—
us391CTR	Underavg 47.7¢	$633.91	$624.98	-$15.58	52% 1358-1270 (2628)
UP UpTheBluesCTR	Underavg 51.3¢	$203.04	$185.89	-$17.15	68% 31181-14989 (46170)
LE LeLynxMalynxARB<$100	Overavg 53¢	$97.68	$98.91	+$3.21	54% 13818-11600 (25418)
└ Over leg	Overavg 53¢	$69.96	$69.96	+$1.98
└ Under leg	Underavg 45¢	$27.72	$28.95	+$1.23
GO GoalLineGhostCTR	Underavg 54¢	$104.08	$90.59	-$13.49	52% 16298-14844 (31142)
FO fooooolARB<$100	Overavg 46¢	$42.93	$51	+$8.06	51% 6573-6335 (12908)
└ Over leg	Overavg 46¢	$24.84	$28.62	+$3.78
└ Under leg	Underavg 38¢	$18.09	$22.38	+$4.28
SN SnakeBallCTR<$100	Underavg 32.5¢	$25.65	$37.13	+$11.48	50% 8820-8762 (17582)
HRTradingCTR<$100	Underavg 51.5¢	$87.12	$34.44	-$52.68	57% 1491-1104 (2595)
RN1CTR<$100	Underavg 53¢	$5.52	$4.89	-$0.62	55% 43593-35871 (79464)
CA Cannae<$100	Overavg 53¢	$2.12	$2.12	+$0	53% 13584-12026 (25610)

0xe020...f39b

Over

Invested

$3,329.99

Value

$3.7K

PnL

+$380

Record

—

us391CTR

Under

Invested

$633.91

Value

$624.98

PnL

-$15.58

Record

52%

1358-1270 (2628)

UpTheBluesCTR

Under

Invested

$203.04

Value

$185.89

PnL

-$17.15

Record

68%

31181-14989 (46170)

LeLynxMalynxARB<$100

Over

Invested

$97.68

Value

$98.91

PnL

+$3.21

Record

54%

13818-11600 (25418)

Both legs:

Invested

$104.08

Value

$90.59

PnL

-$13.49

Record

52%

16298-14844 (31142)

fooooolARB<$100

Over

Invested

$42.93

Value

$51

PnL

+$8.06

Record

51%

6573-6335 (12908)

Both legs:

Invested

$25.65

Value

$37.13

PnL

+$11.48

Record

50%

8820-8762 (17582)

HRTradingCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$87.12

Value

$34.44

PnL

-$52.68

Record

57%

1491-1104 (2595)

RN1CTR<$100

Under

Invested

$5.52

Value

$4.89

PnL

-$0.62

Record

55%

43593-35871 (79464)

Cannae<$100

Over

Invested

$2.12

Value

$2.12

PnL

+$0

Record

53%

13584-12026 (25610)

Research grade

NeutralOver at 81%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Spread or totalSpreads and totals: −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)0.70–0.90 was about break-even after costs, +0.4 % a trade (n 4,327); 0.60–0.95 with 70 %+ and $10k+ +2.9 % (n 955). The consensus beats its price by 2–3 points here, about what the costs take.

Smart Money Signal

Over

2 of 8 top traders (25%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed6 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Over wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance82.3%

80.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.8¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$21.57

Max Loss

-$100.00

121.6

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.