Will CD Eldense win on 2026-10-25?
5 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold No (71%) · No at 98¢ · $275 held · ended Oct 25
⚖️
Neutral
No
7
No 71%
$274.56
-$26.22
76.5¢ → 98.5¢
+29% since entry · 5 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 98%
No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).
- Side priced over 95¢0.90–0.99 was −0.2 % a trade (n 4,210); above 95¢ little is left to win and the backtests' bands stop at 0.95.
Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 7 top traders (71%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
UP UpTheBlues | Noavg 80.3¢ | $186.81 | $166.7 | -$20.11 | 68% 31181-14989 (46170) |
FO foooool<$100 | Noavg 71.4¢ | $56.42 | $54.5 | -$1.92 | 51% 6573-6335 (12908) |
GO GoalLineGhostCTR<$100 | Yesavg 10.3¢ | $26.08 | $21.54 | -$4.53 | 52% 16298-14844 (31142) |
 VeryLucky888<$100 | Noavg 67.3¢ | $63.84 | $20.56 | +$0.29 | 58% 31709-22957 (54666) |
VD VD721lsj4938Dk388CTR<$100 | Yesavg 30¢ | $4.64 | $4.79 | +$0.15 | 55% 1302-1046 (2348) |
 HRTrading<$100 | Noavg 89¢ | $3.87 | $3.91 | +$0.04 | 57% 1491-1104 (2595) |
 RN1<$100 | Noavg 73¢ | $2.7 | $2.56 | -$0.15 | 55% 43593-35871 (79464) |
Invested
$186.81
Value
$166.7
PnL
-$20.11
Record
68%
31181-14989 (46170)
Invested
$56.42
Value
$54.5
PnL
-$1.92
Record
51%
6573-6335 (12908)
Invested
$26.08
Value
$21.54
PnL
-$4.53
Record
52%
16298-14844 (31142)
VeryLucky888<$100Invested
$63.84
Value
$20.56
PnL
+$0.29
Record
58%
31709-22957 (54666)
Invested
$4.64
Value
$4.79
PnL
+$0.15
Record
55%
1302-1046 (2348)
HRTrading<$100Invested
$3.87
Value
$3.91
PnL
+$0.04
Record
57%
1491-1104 (2595)
RN1<$100Invested
$2.7
Value
$2.56
PnL
-$0.15
Record
55%
43593-35871 (79464)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
98.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.