Will Albacete Balompié win on 2026-10-25?

5 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (56%) · Yes at 100¢ · $3K held · ended Oct 25

Yes>99¢No<1¢Ended Sun, Oct 25, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 56%

Total Value

$3.1K

Combined PnL

-$526.71

Smart Money Entry

93.3¢ → 99.5¢

+7% since entry · 5 traders

Research grade

NeutralYes at 100%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Side priced over 95¢0.90–0.99 was −0.2 % a trade (n 4,210); above 95¢ little is left to win and the backtests' bands stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

5 of 9 top traders (56%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes100%

No1%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes5 traders

Total Value$2.9K

Total Shares3,043

Combined PnL-$495.89

No4 traders

Total Value$216.21

Total Shares2,402

Combined PnL-$30.82

Yes — 56%No — 44%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
UP UpTheBlues	Yesavg 97.9¢	$1.8K	$1.6K	-$123.87	68% 31211-14997 (46208)
SN SnakeBall	Yesavg 90.4¢	$1.1K	$827.56	-$287.12	50% 8825-8766 (17591)
FO foooool	Yesavg 93.8¢	$418.86	$334.88	-$83.98	51% 6583-6340 (12923)
RN1CTR	Noavg 1.9¢	$32.94	$157.53	+$124.58	55% 43612-35879 (79491)
LE LeLynxMalynx	Yesavg 41¢	$55.24	$110.03	-$0.98	54% 13824-11602 (25426)
VeryLucky888CTR	Noavg 59.2¢	$380.81	$30.57	-$172.43	58% 31731-22975 (54706)
LU LuckyLooCTR<$100	Noavg 2.9¢	$5.38	$16.71	+$11.32	50% 7770-7819 (15589)
LI LilybaeumCTR<$100	Noavg 4.5¢	$5.7	$11.4	+$5.7	65% 12556-6677 (19233)
AJ AJSV<$100	Yesavg 90¢	$4.5	$4.55	+$0.05	36% 12940-22677 (35617)

UpTheBlues

Yes

Invested

$1,765.58

Value

$1.6K

PnL

-$123.87

Record

68%

31211-14997 (46208)

SnakeBall

Yes

Invested

$1,114.68

Value

$827.56

PnL

-$287.12

Record

50%

8825-8766 (17591)

foooool

Yes

Invested

$418.86

Value

$334.88

PnL

-$83.98

Record

51%

6583-6340 (12923)

RN1CTR

Invested

$32.94

Value

$157.53

PnL

+$124.58

Record

55%

43612-35879 (79491)

LeLynxMalynx

Yes

Invested

$55.24

Value

$110.03

PnL

-$0.98

Record

54%

13824-11602 (25426)

VeryLucky888CTR

Invested

$380.81

Value

$30.57

PnL

-$172.43

Record

58%

31731-22975 (54706)

LuckyLooCTR<$100

Invested

$5.38

Value

$16.71

PnL

+$11.32

Record

50%

7770-7819 (15589)

LilybaeumCTR<$100

Invested

$5.7

Value

$11.4

PnL

+$5.7

Record

65%

12556-6677 (19233)

AJSV<$100

Yes

Invested

$4.5

Value

$4.55

PnL

+$0.05

Record

36%

12940-22677 (35617)

Research grade

NeutralYes at 100%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Side priced over 95¢0.90–0.99 was −0.2 % a trade (n 4,210); above 95¢ little is left to win and the backtests' bands stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

5 of 9 top traders (56%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

99.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.