Sparta Rotterdam vs. AFC Ajax: O/U 5.5
5 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Under (100%) · Under at 79¢ · $700 held · ended Oct 25
⚖️
Neutral
Under
5
Under 100%
$699.72
$32.81
84.7¢ → 78.5¢
-7% since entry · 5 traders
Research grade
NeutralUnder at 79%
No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).
- Spread or totalSpreads and totals: −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Favourite (60–95¢)0.70–0.90 was about break-even after costs, +0.4 % a trade (n 4,327); 0.60–0.95 with 70 %+ and $10k+ +2.9 % (n 955). The consensus beats its price by 2–3 points here, about what the costs take.
Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 5 top traders (100%)2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
5 traders
Top 2 hold 69%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
100% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 69% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 VeryLucky888 | Underavg 84¢ | $288.54 | $305.72 | +$17.18 | 58% 31731-22975 (54706) |
 0xheavy888 | Underavg 84¢ | $168 | $178 | +$17 | 56% 6365-5100 (11465) |
FO foooool | Underavg 87¢ | $157.15 | $155.93 | -$1.22 | 51% 6583-6340 (12923) |
LE LeLynxMalynx<$100 | Underavg 84¢ | $53.76 | $56.96 | -$0.32 | 54% 13824-11602 (25426) |
 HRTrading<$100 | Underavg 84¢ | $2.94 | $3.12 | +$0.18 | 57% 1506-1114 (2620) |
VeryLucky888Invested
$288.54
Value
$305.72
PnL
+$17.18
Record
58%
31731-22975 (54706)
0xheavy888Invested
$168
Value
$178
PnL
+$17
Record
56%
6365-5100 (11465)
Invested
$157.15
Value
$155.93
PnL
-$1.22
Record
51%
6583-6340 (12923)
Invested
$53.76
Value
$56.96
PnL
-$0.32
Record
54%
13824-11602 (25426)
HRTrading<$100Invested
$2.94
Value
$3.12
PnL
+$0.18
Record
57%
1506-1114 (2620)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
78.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.8¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.