Sparta Rotterdam vs. AFC Ajax: O/U 3.5

6 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold Under (67%) · Under at 59¢ · $8K held · ended Oct 25

Over41¢Under59¢Ended Sun, Oct 25, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Under

Consensus Traders

Under 67%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$8.2K

Combined PnL

-$211.71

Smart Money Entry

51.1¢ → 59¢

+15% since entry · 6 traders

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 59%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Spread or totalSpreads and totals: −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Side priced 50–60¢0.50–0.70 lost −3.2 % a trade pooled (n 3,834).

Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Under

6 of 9 top traders (67%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Over41%

Under59%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Under6 traders

Total Value$6.2K

Total Shares12,053

Combined PnL+$157.57

Over3 traders

Total Value$1.8K

Total Shares4,491

Combined PnL-$369.28

Under — 67%Over — 33%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
RA rabbitfoot1	Underavg 50¢	$4.7K	$4.7K	+$141.72	53% 901-789 (1690)
GO GoalLineGhostCTR	Overavg 47.4¢	$2.1K	$1.7K	-$371.49	52% 16298-14844 (31142)
UP UpTheBlues	Underavg 55.4¢	$983.65	$1.0K	+$37.84	68% 31181-14989 (46170)
VeryLucky888	Underavg 50.6¢	$807.29	$206.18	-$10.12	58% 31709-22957 (54666)
LE LeLynxMalynxARB<$100	Underavg 50.5¢	$180.24	$179	-$1.24	54% 13818-11600 (25418)
└ Under leg	Underavg 50.5¢	$117.24	$116	-$1.24
└ Over leg	Overavg 50¢	$63	$63	+$0
SN SnakeBall	Underavg 59.5¢	$145.06	$143.74	-$1.32	50% 8820-8762 (17582)
0xheavy888CTR	Overavg 49¢	$98	$100	+$2	56% 6364-5100 (11464)
FO foooool	Underavg 56¢	$100	$89.29	-$10.71	51% 6573-6335 (12908)
RN1<$100	Underavg 56¢	$19.61	$19.79	+$0.18	55% 43593-35871 (79464)
LU LuckyLooCTR<$100	Overavg 38¢	$15.53	$15.74	+$0.2	50% 7766-7815 (15581)

rabbitfoot1

Under

Invested

$4,702.89

Value

$4.7K

PnL

+$141.72

Record

53%

901-789 (1690)

GoalLineGhostCTR

Over

Invested

$2,051.56

Value

$1.7K

PnL

-$371.49

Record

52%

16298-14844 (31142)

UpTheBlues

Under

Invested

$983.65

Value

$1.0K

PnL

+$37.84

Record

68%

31181-14989 (46170)

VeryLucky888

Under

Invested

$807.29

Value

$206.18

PnL

-$10.12

Record

58%

31709-22957 (54666)

LeLynxMalynxARB<$100

Under

Invested

$180.24

Value

$179

PnL

-$1.24

Record

54%

13818-11600 (25418)

Both legs:

Under$117.2450.5¢-$1.24

Over$6350¢+$0

SnakeBall

Under

Invested

$145.06

Value

$143.74

PnL

-$1.32

Record

50%

8820-8762 (17582)

0xheavy888CTR

Over

Invested

$98

Value

$100

PnL

+$2

Record

56%

6364-5100 (11464)

foooool

Under

Invested

$100

Value

$89.29

PnL

-$10.71

Record

51%

6573-6335 (12908)

RN1<$100

Under

Invested

$19.61

Value

$19.79

PnL

+$0.18

Record

55%

43593-35871 (79464)

LuckyLooCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$15.53

Value

$15.74

PnL

+$0.2

Record

50%

7766-7815 (15581)

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 59%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Spread or totalSpreads and totals: −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Side priced 50–60¢0.50–0.70 lost −3.2 % a trade pooled (n 3,834).

Smart Money Signal

Under

6 of 9 top traders (67%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Under wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance61.2%

59.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$63.40

Max Loss

-$100.00

163.4

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.