Sparta Rotterdam vs. AFC Ajax: O/U 2.5

4 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Over (80%) · Over at 100¢ · $764 held · ended Oct 25

Over>99¢Under<1¢Ended Sun, Oct 25, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Over

Consensus Traders

Over 80%

Total Value

$763.67

Combined PnL

$37.13

Smart Money Entry

71.5¢ → 100¢

+40% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

NeutralOver at 100%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Side priced over 95¢0.90–0.99 was −0.2 % a trade (n 4,210); above 95¢ little is left to win and the backtests' bands stop at 0.95.
Spread or totalSpreads and totals: −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.

Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Over

4 of 5 top traders (80%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Over100%

Under0%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Over4 traders

Total Value$749.77

Total Shares1,066

Combined PnL+$40.55

Under1 trader

Total Value$13.89

Total Shares46

Combined PnL-$3.42

Over — 80%Under — 20%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
RN1	Overavg 70¢	$550.97	$617.44	+$66.47	55% 43612-35879 (79491)
LE LeLynxMalynx	Overavg 71.5¢	$108.67	$95.76	-$12.91	54% 13824-11602 (25426)
VA Vampiro1<$100	Overavg 97¢	$38.8	$28	-$10.8	75% 2374-784 (3158)
FO fooooolCTR<$100	Underavg 37.4¢	$17.32	$13.89	-$3.42	51% 6583-6340 (12923)
UP UpTheBlues<$100	Overavg 88¢	$10.78	$8.58	-$2.21	68% 31211-14997 (46208)

RN1

Over

Invested

$550.97

Value

$617.44

PnL

+$66.47

Record

55%

43612-35879 (79491)

LeLynxMalynx

Over

Invested

$108.67

Value

$95.76

PnL

-$12.91

Record

54%

13824-11602 (25426)

Vampiro1<$100

Over

Invested

$38.8

Value

$28

PnL

-$10.8

Record

75%

2374-784 (3158)

fooooolCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$17.32

Value

$13.89

PnL

-$3.42

Record

51%

6583-6340 (12923)

UpTheBlues<$100

Over

Invested

$10.78

Value

$8.58

PnL

-$2.21

Record

68%

31211-14997 (46208)

Research grade

NeutralOver at 100%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Side priced over 95¢0.90–0.99 was −0.2 % a trade (n 4,210); above 95¢ little is left to win and the backtests' bands stop at 0.95.
Spread or totalSpreads and totals: −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.

Smart Money Signal

Over

4 of 5 top traders (80%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Over wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.