Sparta Rotterdam vs. AFC Ajax: O/U 1.5

3 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold Over (75%) · Over at 94¢ · $334 held · ended Oct 25

Over94¢Under6¢Ended Sun, Oct 25, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Over

Consensus Traders

Over 75%

Total Value

$334.38

Combined PnL

-$28.64

Smart Money Entry

88.8¢ → 94¢

+6% since entry · 3 traders

Research grade

NeutralOver at 94%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Spread or totalSpreads and totals: −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)0.70–0.90 was about break-even after costs, +0.4 % a trade (n 4,327); 0.60–0.95 with 70 %+ and $10k+ +2.9 % (n 955). The consensus beats its price by 2–3 points here, about what the costs take.

Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Over

3 of 4 top traders (75%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Over94%

Under6%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Over3 traders

Total Value$327.36

Total Shares372

Combined PnL-$18.11

Under1 trader

Total Value$7.02

Total Shares117

Combined PnL-$10.53

Over — 75%Under — 25%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
Socialista	Overavg 89¢	$267	$264	-$18	62% 2264-1416 (3680)
LE LeLynxMalynx<$100	Overavg 88¢	$53.68	$53.68	+$0	54% 13824-11602 (25426)
PL PLACEYOURBETS123<$100	Overavg 89¢	$9.79	$9.68	-$0.11	57% 31-23 (54)
FO fooooolCTR<$100	Underavg 15¢	$17.55	$7.02	-$10.53	51% 6583-6340 (12923)

Socialista

Over

Invested

$267

Value

$264

PnL

-$18

Record

62%

2264-1416 (3680)

LeLynxMalynx<$100

Over

Invested

$53.68

Value

$53.68

PnL

+$0

Record

54%

13824-11602 (25426)

PLACEYOURBETS123<$100

Over

Invested

$9.79

Value

$9.68

PnL

-$0.11

Record

57%

31-23 (54)

fooooolCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$17.55

Value

$7.02

PnL

-$10.53

Record

51%

6583-6340 (12923)

Research grade

NeutralOver at 94%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Spread or totalSpreads and totals: −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)0.70–0.90 was about break-even after costs, +0.4 % a trade (n 4,327); 0.60–0.95 with 70 %+ and $10k+ +2.9 % (n 955). The consensus beats its price by 2–3 points here, about what the costs take.

Smart Money Signal

Over

3 of 4 top traders (75%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Over wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance95.2%

94.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$5.00

Max Loss

-$100.00

105.0

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.