Spread: AFC Ajax (-3.5)
2 of 3 top Polymarket traders hold Sparta Rotterdam (67%) · Sparta Rotterdam at 89¢ · $2K held · ended Oct 25
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Neutral
Sparta Rotterdam
3
Sparta Rotterdam 67%
$2.1K
$32.15
87.6¢ → 89¢
+2% since entry · 2 traders
Research grade
NeutralSparta Rotterdam at 89%
No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).
- Spread or totalSpreads and totals: −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
- Favourite (60–95¢)0.70–0.90 was about break-even after costs, +0.4 % a trade (n 4,327); 0.60–0.95 with 70 %+ and $10k+ +2.9 % (n 955). The consensus beats its price by 2–3 points here, about what the costs take.
Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 3 top traders (67%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
GO GoalLineGhost | Sparta Rotterdamavg 87.2¢ | $1.8K | $1.8K | +$35.47 | 52% 16312-14865 (31177) |
FO foooool | Sparta Rotterdamavg 89.9¢ | $245.59 | $243.17 | -$2.42 | 51% 6583-6340 (12923) |
 HRTradingCTR<$100 | AFC Ajaxavg 13¢ | $6.9 | $6 | -$0.89 | 57% 1506-1114 (2620) |
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
89.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.4¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.