Spread: AFC Ajax (-1.5)

6 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Sparta Rotterdam (100%) · Sparta Rotterdam at 62¢ · $38K held · ended Oct 25

AFC Ajax39¢Sparta Rotterdam61¢Ended Sun, Oct 25, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Sparta Rotterdam

Consensus Traders

Sparta Rotterdam 100%

2 arb excluded

Total Value

$37.9K

Combined PnL

-$192.01

Smart Money Entry

58.9¢ → 61.5¢

+4% since entry · 6 traders

Research grade

NeutralSparta Rotterdam at 62%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Spread or totalSpreads and totals: −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Favourite (60–95¢)0.70–0.90 was about break-even after costs, +0.4 % a trade (n 4,327); 0.60–0.95 with 70 %+ and $10k+ +2.9 % (n 955). The consensus beats its price by 2–3 points here, about what the costs take.

Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Sparta Rotterdam

6 of 6 top traders (100%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

AFC Ajax39%

Sparta Rotterdam62%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Sparta Rotterdam6 traders

Total Value$33.7K

Total Shares56,178

Combined PnL-$192.01

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
1L 1l2ihj34li12u34	Sparta Rotterdamavg 59¢	$30.0K	$30.5K	-$254.24	48% 114-124 (238)
GO GoalLineGhostARB<$100	Sparta Rotterdamavg 57.5¢	$4.0K	$4.0K	+$34.82	52% 16298-14844 (31142)
└ Sparta Rotterdam leg	Sparta Rotterdamavg 57.5¢	$2.3K	$2.4K	+$100.25
└ AFC Ajax leg	AFC Ajaxavg 41.6¢	$1.7K	$1.6K	-$65.42
UP UpTheBlues	Sparta Rotterdamavg 58.6¢	$2.0K	$2.0K	+$13.63	68% 31181-14989 (46170)
RN1	Sparta Rotterdamavg 57¢	$557.13	$586.45	+$29.32	55% 43593-35871 (79464)
VeryLucky888	Sparta Rotterdamavg 58¢	$350.72	$360	+$12.07	58% 31709-22957 (54666)
LE LeLynxMalynxARB<$100	AFC Ajaxavg 43.6¢	$173.25	$163.2	-$10.05	54% 13818-11600 (25418)
└ AFC Ajax leg	AFC Ajaxavg 43.6¢	$130.77	$120	-$10.77
└ Sparta Rotterdam leg	Sparta Rotterdamavg 59¢	$42.48	$43.2	+$0.72
SN SnakeBall	Sparta Rotterdamavg 58¢	$126.34	$130.62	+$4.27	50% 8820-8762 (17582)
HRTrading<$100	Sparta Rotterdamavg 57¢	$55.86	$58.8	+$2.94	57% 1491-1104 (2595)

1l2ihj34li12u34

Sparta Rotterdam

Invested

$29,999.99

Value

$30.5K

PnL

-$254.24

Record

48%

114-124 (238)

GoalLineGhostARB<$100

Sparta Rotterdam

Invested

$4,005.3

Value

$4.0K

PnL

+$34.82

Record

52%

16298-14844 (31142)

Both legs:

Sparta Rotterdam$2,340.8657.5¢+$100.25

AFC Ajax$1,664.4341.6¢-$65.42

UpTheBlues

Sparta Rotterdam

Invested

$2,014.47

Value

$2.0K

PnL

+$13.63

Record

68%

31181-14989 (46170)

RN1

Sparta Rotterdam

Invested

$557.13

Value

$586.45

PnL

+$29.32

Record

55%

43593-35871 (79464)

VeryLucky888

Sparta Rotterdam

Invested

$350.72

Value

$360

PnL

+$12.07

Record

58%

31709-22957 (54666)

LeLynxMalynxARB<$100

AFC Ajax

Invested

$173.25

Value

$163.2

PnL

-$10.05

Record

54%

13818-11600 (25418)

Both legs:

AFC Ajax$130.7743.6¢-$10.77

Sparta Rotterdam$42.4859¢+$0.72

SnakeBall

Sparta Rotterdam

Invested

$126.34

Value

$130.62

PnL

+$4.27

Record

50%

8820-8762 (17582)

HRTrading<$100

Sparta Rotterdam

Invested

$55.86

Value

$58.8

PnL

+$2.94

Record

57%

1491-1104 (2595)

Research grade

NeutralSparta Rotterdam at 62%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Spread or totalSpreads and totals: −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Favourite (60–95¢)0.70–0.90 was about break-even after costs, +0.4 % a trade (n 4,327); 0.60–0.95 with 70 %+ and $10k+ +2.9 % (n 955). The consensus beats its price by 2–3 points here, about what the costs take.

Smart Money Signal

Sparta Rotterdam

6 of 6 top traders (100%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Sparta Rotterdam wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance63.7%

61.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$57.06

Max Loss

-$100.00

157.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.