Will Sparta Rotterdam win on 2026-10-25?

5 of 11 top Polymarket traders hold No (45%) · No at 87¢ · $5K held · ended Oct 25

Yes14¢No86¢Ended Sun, Oct 25, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 45%

Total Value

$4.5K

Combined PnL

$6.61

Smart Money Entry

84.5¢ → 86.5¢

+2% since entry · 5 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 87%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)0.70–0.90 was about break-even after costs, +0.4 % a trade (n 4,327); 0.60–0.95 with 70 %+ and $10k+ +2.9 % (n 955). The consensus beats its price by 2–3 points here, about what the costs take.

Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

5 of 11 top traders (45%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes14%

No87%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No5 traders

Total Value$2.9K

Total Shares3,422

Combined PnL+$28.26

Yes6 traders

Total Value$1.6K

Total Shares10,649

Combined PnL-$21.65

No — 45%Yes — 55%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
RN1	Noavg 84.3¢	$1.9K	$2.0K	+$26.77	55% 43593-35871 (79464)
GO GoalLineGhostCTR	Yesavg 15¢	$862.83	$834.34	-$28.49	52% 16298-14844 (31142)
LI Lilybaeum	Noavg 85¢	$737.28	$741.62	+$4.34	65% 12554-6676 (19230)
UP UpTheBluesCTR	Yesavg 15.9¢	$529.83	$518.11	-$11.72	68% 31181-14989 (46170)
0xheavy888	Noavg 84¢	$168	$166	-$2	56% 6364-5100 (11464)
GH ghostorderCTR	Yesavg 14.3¢	$107	$116.25	+$9.25	68% 3933-1880 (5813)
SN SnakeBallCTR<$100	Yesavg 16.3¢	$69.29	$72.39	+$3.1	50% 8820-8762 (17582)
LE LeLynxMalynx<$100	Noavg 84.8¢	$37.65	$36.87	-$0.78	54% 13818-11600 (25418)
oieshfn345CTR<$100	Yesavg 14¢	$28.49	$29.51	+$1.02	57% 1459-1082 (2541)
CA CannaeCTR<$100	Yesavg 14¢	$24.22	$29.41	+$5.19	53% 13584-12026 (25610)
HRTrading<$100	Noavg 85¢	$12.58	$12.51	-$0.07	57% 1491-1104 (2595)

RN1

Invested

$1,935.45

Value

$2.0K

PnL

+$26.77

Record

55%

43593-35871 (79464)

GoalLineGhostCTR

Yes

Invested

$862.83

Value

$834.34

PnL

-$28.49

Record

52%

16298-14844 (31142)

Lilybaeum

Invested

$737.28

Value

$741.62

PnL

+$4.34

Record

65%

12554-6676 (19230)

UpTheBluesCTR

Yes

Invested

$529.83

Value

$518.11

PnL

-$11.72

Record

68%

31181-14989 (46170)

0xheavy888

Invested

$168

Value

$166

PnL

-$2

Record

56%

6364-5100 (11464)

ghostorderCTR

Yes

Invested

$107

Value

$116.25

PnL

+$9.25

Record

68%

3933-1880 (5813)

SnakeBallCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$69.29

Value

$72.39

PnL

+$3.1

Record

50%

8820-8762 (17582)

LeLynxMalynx<$100

Invested

$37.65

Value

$36.87

PnL

-$0.78

Record

54%

13818-11600 (25418)

oieshfn345CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$28.49

Value

$29.51

PnL

+$1.02

Record

57%

1459-1082 (2541)

CannaeCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$24.22

Value

$29.41

PnL

+$5.19

Record

53%

13584-12026 (25610)

HRTrading<$100

Invested

$12.58

Value

$12.51

PnL

-$0.07

Record

57%

1491-1104 (2595)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 87%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)0.70–0.90 was about break-even after costs, +0.4 % a trade (n 4,327); 0.60–0.95 with 70 %+ and $10k+ +2.9 % (n 955). The consensus beats its price by 2–3 points here, about what the costs take.

Smart Money Signal

5 of 11 top traders (45%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance88.0%

86.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.5¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$13.58

Max Loss

-$100.00

113.6

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.