Will Sparta Rotterdam vs. AFC Ajax end in a draw?
4 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold No (50%) · No at 85¢ · $2K held · ended Oct 25
⚖️
Neutral
No
8
No 50%
$1.7K
$56
81.8¢ → 84.5¢
+3% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 85%
No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Favourite (60–95¢)0.70–0.90 was about break-even after costs, +0.4 % a trade (n 4,327); 0.60–0.95 with 70 %+ and $10k+ +2.9 % (n 955). The consensus beats its price by 2–3 points here, about what the costs take.
Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 8 top traders (50%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
4 traders
Top 2 hold 79%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
80% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 79% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 oieshfn345 | Noavg 80.1¢ | $887.24 | $972.09 | +$84.85 | 57% 1460-1082 (2542) |
 RN1 | Noavg 87¢ | $294.7 | $292.85 | -$1.7 | 55% 43612-35879 (79491) |
 0xheavy888 | Noavg 81.9¢ | $239.22 | $254.04 | -$7.08 | 56% 6365-5100 (11465) |
LE LeLynxMalynx<$100 | Noavg 82¢ | $69.7 | $73.95 | +$4.25 | 54% 13824-11602 (25426) |
UP UpTheBluesCTR<$100 | Yesavg 18.2¢ | $69.53 | $49.62 | -$19.91 | 68% 31211-14997 (46208) |
FO fooooolCTR<$100 | Yesavg 16¢ | $9.23 | $7.5 | -$1.73 | 51% 6583-6340 (12923) |
 HRTradingCTR<$100 | Yesavg 20¢ | $7.98 | $5.19 | -$2.79 | 57% 1506-1114 (2620) |
SN SnakeBallCTR<$100 | Yesavg 12¢ | $1.33 | $1.44 | +$0.11 | 50% 8825-8766 (17591) |
oieshfn345Invested
$887.24
Value
$972.09
PnL
+$84.85
Record
57%
1460-1082 (2542)
RN1Invested
$294.7
Value
$292.85
PnL
-$1.7
Record
55%
43612-35879 (79491)
0xheavy888Invested
$239.22
Value
$254.04
PnL
-$7.08
Record
56%
6365-5100 (11465)
Invested
$69.7
Value
$73.95
PnL
+$4.25
Record
54%
13824-11602 (25426)
Invested
$69.53
Value
$49.62
PnL
-$19.91
Record
68%
31211-14997 (46208)
Invested
$9.23
Value
$7.5
PnL
-$1.73
Record
51%
6583-6340 (12923)
HRTradingCTR<$100Invested
$7.98
Value
$5.19
PnL
-$2.79
Record
57%
1506-1114 (2620)
Invested
$1.33
Value
$1.44
PnL
+$0.11
Record
50%
8825-8766 (17591)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
84.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.6¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.