Sparta Rotterdam vs. AFC Ajax: Both Teams to Score

4 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (67%) · Yes at 100¢ · $734 held · ended Oct 25

Yes>99¢No<1¢Ended Sun, Oct 25, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 67%

Total Value

$733.71

Combined PnL

-$23.57

Smart Money Entry

64¢ → 100¢

+56% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

NeutralYes at 100%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Side priced over 95¢0.90–0.99 was −0.2 % a trade (n 4,210); above 95¢ little is left to win and the backtests' bands stop at 0.95.

Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

4 of 6 top traders (67%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes100%

No0%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes4 traders

Total Value$719.33

Total Shares1,188

Combined PnL-$24.79

No2 traders

Total Value$14.38

Total Shares36

Combined PnL+$1.22

Yes — 67%No — 33%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 98%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

60% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 98% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 100% · 1

Diverging

sharpYes 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrYes 75% · 4

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 50% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 67% · 3

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0x5b624e3E0426F7AA2Ca57F7451fbcEa4b125D87f-1769796221989	Yesavg 63¢	$403.35	$390.55	+$3.2	69% 4286-1924 (6210)
FO foooool	Yesavg 63¢	$309.5	$294.9	-$14.6	51% 6583-6340 (12923)
LO looppau<$100	Yesavg 99.9¢	$32.75	$19.67	-$13.08	99% 6822-38 (6860)
VeryLucky888<$100	Yesavg 63¢	$19.53	$14.22	-$0.31	58% 31731-22975 (54706)
LE LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100	Noavg 35¢	$8.08	$9.23	+$1.15	54% 13824-11602 (25426)
RN1CTR<$100	Noavg 38¢	$4.89	$5.15	+$0.06	55% 43612-35879 (79491)

0x5b624e3E0426F7AA2Ca57F7451fbcEa4b125D87f-1769796221989

Yes

Invested

$403.35

Value

$390.55

PnL

+$3.2

Record

69%

4286-1924 (6210)

foooool

Yes

Invested

$309.5

Value

$294.9

PnL

-$14.6

Record

51%

6583-6340 (12923)

looppau<$100

Yes

Invested

$32.75

Value

$19.67

PnL

-$13.08

Record

99%

6822-38 (6860)

VeryLucky888<$100

Yes

Invested

$19.53

Value

$14.22

PnL

-$0.31

Record

58%

31731-22975 (54706)

LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100

Invested

$8.08

Value

$9.23

PnL

+$1.15

Record

54%

13824-11602 (25426)

RN1CTR<$100

Invested

$4.89

Value

$5.15

PnL

+$0.06

Record

55%

43612-35879 (79491)

Research grade

NeutralYes at 100%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Side priced over 95¢0.90–0.99 was −0.2 % a trade (n 4,210); above 95¢ little is left to win and the backtests' bands stop at 0.95.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

4 of 6 top traders (67%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 98%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

60% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 98% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 100% · 1

Diverging

sharpYes 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrYes 75% · 4

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 50% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 67% · 3

Aligned

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EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.