Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold No, while the market favors Yes (67%). 8 of 11 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Will AFC Ajax win on 2026-10-25?

8 of 11 top Polymarket traders hold No (73%) · No at 34¢ · $16K held · ended Oct 25

Yes67¢No33¢Ended Sun, Oct 25, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 73%

5 arb excluded

Total Value

$16.4K

Combined PnL

-$10.48

Smart Money Entry

35.6¢ → 33.5¢

-6% since entry · 8 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 34%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Side priced 30–50¢0.30–0.50 lost −6.5 % a trade pooled (n 2,793), a little worse than the plain consensus.

Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

8 of 11 top traders (73%)Underdog side (market favors Yes 67%)5 arbitrage traders dimmed8 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes67%

No34%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No8 traders

Total Value$4.5K

Total Shares12,558

Combined PnL+$17.86

Yes3 traders

Total Value$1.6K

Total Shares2,500

Combined PnL-$28.34

No — 73%Yes — 27%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
UP UpTheBluesARB<$100	Noavg 33.6¢	$5.9K	$6.1K	+$245.97	68% 31181-14989 (46170)
└ No leg	Noavg 33.6¢	$3.9K	$4.2K	+$225.33
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 63.8¢	$2.0K	$2.0K	+$20.64
RN1ARB<$100	Yesavg 64.7¢	$2.0K	$2.0K	+$4.77	55% 43593-35871 (79464)
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 64.7¢	$1.2K	$1.2K	+$33.78
└ No leg	Noavg 34.7¢	$833.64	$804.63	-$29.01
LZ lzh1CTR	Noavg 36¢	$1.7K	$1.7K	+$0	43% 411-543 (954)
oieshfn345ARB<$100	Yesavg 65¢	$1.6K	$1.7K	+$19.95	57% 1459-1082 (2541)
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 65¢	$1.0K	$1.0K	+$23.65
└ No leg	Noavg 33.7¢	$630.93	$627.23	-$3.7
GO GoalLineGhostCTR	Noavg 35.4¢	$1.4K	$1.4K	+$3.03	52% 16298-14844 (31142)
HO Hongweiqian	Yesavg 65¢	$1.2K	$1.2K	-$18.42	48% 144-157 (301)
CA CannaeCTR	Noavg 34.5¢	$485.51	$506.18	+$20.84	53% 13584-12026 (25610)
0xheavy888	Yesavg 65.6¢	$414.99	$404.66	-$10.32	56% 6364-5100 (11464)
KY Kyn008CTR	Noavg 36¢	$339.3	$339.3	-$0	50% 192-189 (381)
LU LuckyLooARB<$100	Yesavg 64¢	$320.51	$322.92	+$2.41	50% 7766-7815 (15581)
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 64¢	$236.16	$236.16	-$0
└ No leg	Noavg 35¢	$84.35	$86.76	+$2.41
us391CTR	Noavg 36¢	$318.92	$318.92	+$0	52% 1358-1270 (2628)
LE LeLynxMalynxARB<$100	Noavg 35.2¢	$182.57	$182.67	+$0.1	54% 13818-11600 (25418)
└ No leg	Noavg 35.2¢	$100.92	$103.32	+$2.4
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 65.9¢	$81.65	$79.35	-$2.3
FO fooooolCTR	Noavg 34.6¢	$158.31	$153.26	-$5.06	51% 6573-6335 (12908)
GH ghostorderCTR<$100	Noavg 34¢	$68	$67	-$1	68% 3933-1880 (5813)
HRTrading<$100	Yesavg 63¢	$21.59	$21.99	+$0.4	57% 1491-1104 (2595)
BE BetzikoCTR<$100	Noavg 35¢	$1.75	$1.8	+$0.05	55% 4850-4034 (8884)

UpTheBluesARB<$100

Invested

$5,898.02

Value

$6.1K

PnL

+$245.97

Record

68%

31181-14989 (46170)

Both legs:

No$3,932.0633.6¢+$225.33

Yes$1,965.9663.8¢+$20.64

RN1ARB<$100

Yes

Invested

$2,031.44

Value

$2.0K

PnL

+$4.77

Record

55%

43593-35871 (79464)

Both legs:

Yes$1,197.864.7¢+$33.78

No$833.6434.7¢-$29.01

lzh1CTR

Invested

$1,657.51

Value

$1.7K

PnL

+$0

Record

43%

411-543 (954)

oieshfn345ARB<$100

Yes

Invested

$1,636.87

Value

$1.7K

PnL

+$19.95

Record

57%

1459-1082 (2541)

Both legs:

Yes$1,005.9465¢+$23.65

No$630.9333.7¢-$3.7

GoalLineGhostCTR

Invested

$1,440.16

Value

$1.4K

PnL

+$3.03

Record

52%

16298-14844 (31142)

Hongweiqian

Yes

Invested

$1,197.33

Value

$1.2K

PnL

-$18.42

Record

48%

144-157 (301)

CannaeCTR

Invested

$485.51

Value

$506.18

PnL

+$20.84

Record

53%

13584-12026 (25610)

0xheavy888

Yes

Invested

$414.99

Value

$404.66

PnL

-$10.32

Record

56%

6364-5100 (11464)

Kyn008CTR

Invested

$339.3

Value

$339.3

PnL

-$0

Record

50%

192-189 (381)

LuckyLooARB<$100

Yes

Invested

$320.51

Value

$322.92

PnL

+$2.41

Record

50%

7766-7815 (15581)

Both legs:

Yes$236.1664¢-$0

No$84.3535¢+$2.41

us391CTR

Invested

$318.92

Value

$318.92

PnL

+$0

Record

52%

1358-1270 (2628)

LeLynxMalynxARB<$100

Invested

$182.57

Value

$182.67

PnL

+$0.1

Record

54%

13818-11600 (25418)

Both legs:

No$100.9235.2¢+$2.4

Yes$81.6565.9¢-$2.3

fooooolCTR

Invested

$158.31

Value

$153.26

PnL

-$5.06

Record

51%

6573-6335 (12908)

ghostorderCTR<$100

Invested

$68

Value

$67

PnL

-$1

Record

68%

3933-1880 (5813)

HRTrading<$100

Yes

Invested

$21.59

Value

$21.99

PnL

+$0.4

Record

57%

1491-1104 (2595)

BetzikoCTR<$100

Invested

$1.75

Value

$1.8

PnL

+$0.05

Record

55%

4850-4034 (8884)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 34%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Side priced 30–50¢0.30–0.50 lost −6.5 % a trade pooled (n 2,793), a little worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

8 of 11 top traders (73%)Underdog side (market favors Yes 67%)5 arbitrage traders dimmed8 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance35.6%

33.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$180.66

Max Loss

-$100.00

280.7

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.