Fortuna Sittard vs. SBV Excelsior: O/U 5.5
2 of 3 top Polymarket traders hold Under (67%) · Under at 99¢ · $68 held · ended Oct 25
⚖️
Neutral
Under
3
Under 67%
$67.95
$5.66
Research grade
NeutralUnder at 99%
No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).
- Side priced over 95¢0.90–0.99 was −0.2 % a trade (n 4,210); above 95¢ little is left to win and the backtests' bands stop at 0.95.
- Spread or totalSpreads and totals: −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 3 top traders (67%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
LU LuckyLoo<$100 | Underavg 96¢ | $49.95 | $51.3 | +$5.08 | 50% 7758-7812 (15570) |
FO foooool<$100 | Underavg 94¢ | $15.67 | $16.45 | +$0.78 | 51% 6539-6324 (12863) |
 RN1CTR<$100 | Overavg 2.6¢ | $0.4 | $0.2 | -$0.2 | 55% 43492-35800 (79292) |
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
98.7¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.