Fortuna Sittard vs. SBV Excelsior: O/U 3.5

4 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Under (80%) · Under at 68¢ · $768 held · ends Oct 25

Over33¢Under67¢Ends Sun, Oct 25, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Under

Consensus Traders

Under 80%

Total Value

$767.5

Combined PnL

-$212.1

Smart Money Entry

65.8¢ → 67.5¢

+2% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 68%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Spread or totalSpreads and totals: −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Favourite (60–95¢)0.70–0.90 was about break-even after costs, +0.4 % a trade (n 4,327); 0.60–0.95 with 70 %+ and $10k+ +2.9 % (n 955). The consensus beats its price by 2–3 points here, about what the costs take.

Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Under

4 of 5 top traders (80%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Over33%

Under68%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Under4 traders

Total Value$766.13

Total Shares1,488

Combined PnL-$212.54

Over1 trader

Total Value$1.38

Total Shares3

Combined PnL+$0.44

Under — 80%Over — 20%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
GO GoalLineGhost	Underavg 65.8¢	$661.55	$517.9	-$143.65	52% 16158-14689 (30847)
0xheavy888	Underavg 66¢	$132	$103	-$29	55% 6317-5068 (11385)
VeryLucky888	Underavg 66¢	$198	$103	-$28	58% 31395-22700 (54095)
LE LeLynxMalynx<$100	Underavg 66¢	$54.12	$42.23	-$11.89	54% 13697-11517 (25214)
LU LuckyLooCTR<$100	Overavg 33¢	$0.94	$1.38	+$0.44	50% 7629-7782 (15411)

GoalLineGhost

Under

Invested

$661.55

Value

$517.9

PnL

-$143.65

Record

52%

16158-14689 (30847)

0xheavy888

Under

Invested

$132

Value

$103

PnL

-$29

Record

55%

6317-5068 (11385)

VeryLucky888

Under

Invested

$198

Value

$103

PnL

-$28

Record

58%

31395-22700 (54095)

LeLynxMalynx<$100

Under

Invested

$54.12

Value

$42.23

PnL

-$11.89

Record

54%

13697-11517 (25214)

LuckyLooCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$0.94

Value

$1.38

PnL

+$0.44

Record

50%

7629-7782 (15411)

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 68%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Spread or totalSpreads and totals: −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Favourite (60–95¢)0.70–0.90 was about break-even after costs, +0.4 % a trade (n 4,327); 0.60–0.95 with 70 %+ and $10k+ +2.9 % (n 955). The consensus beats its price by 2–3 points here, about what the costs take.

Smart Money Signal

Under

4 of 5 top traders (80%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Under wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance69.6%

67.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$43.72

Max Loss

-$100.00

143.7

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.