Fortuna Sittard vs. SBV Excelsior: O/U 2.5

9 of 13 top Polymarket traders hold Under (69%) · Under at 81¢ · $13K held · ended Oct 25

Over19¢Under81¢Ended Sun, Oct 25, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Under

Consensus Traders

Under 69%

2 arb excluded

Total Value

$13.0K

Combined PnL

$-1.1K

Smart Money Entry

46.6¢ → 81¢

+74% since entry · 9 traders

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 81%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Spread or totalSpreads and totals: −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Favourite (60–95¢)0.70–0.90 was about break-even after costs, +0.4 % a trade (n 4,327); 0.60–0.95 with 70 %+ and $10k+ +2.9 % (n 955). The consensus beats its price by 2–3 points here, about what the costs take.

Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Under

9 of 13 top traders (69%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Over19%

Under81%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Under9 traders

Total Value$9.5K

Total Shares17,272

Combined PnL+$1.5K

Over4 traders

Total Value$2.7K

Total Shares10,503

Combined PnL$-2.6K

Under — 69%Over — 31%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

50% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Under) and the top 1000 (5 on Over) disagree here.

whaleUnder 67% · 3

Aligned

sharpOver 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrUnder 50% · 6

Aligned

Hand-pickedUnder 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Over 60% · 5

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
RA rabbitfoot1	Underavg 44.8¢	$5.9K	$6.1K	+$353.1	53% 889-782 (1671)
RN1	Underavg 54.6¢	$1.3K	$1.9K	+$586.4	55% 43485-35791 (79276)
GO GoalLineGhostCTR	Overavg 47.8¢	$3.6K	$1.3K	$-2.2K	52% 16262-14802 (31064)
UP UpTheBlues	Underavg 49.3¢	$762.16	$1.3K	+$489	68% 31050-14947 (45997)
0X 0x5b624e3E0426F7AA2Ca57F7451fbcEa4b125D87f-1769796221989CTR	Overavg 55¢	$1.2K	$1.2K	-$15.33	69% 4251-1917 (6168)
0xheavy888ARB<$100	Overavg 55.5¢	$687.11	$682.93	-$4.17	56% 6347-5081 (11428)
└ Over leg	Overavg 55.5¢	$444	$432	-$12
└ Under leg	Underavg 44.6¢	$243.11	$250.93	+$7.83
LI Lilybaeum	Underavg 54¢	$186.38	$259.84	+$73.45	65% 12546-6669 (19215)
LU LuckyLooCTR	Overavg 47.5¢	$494.08	$181.95	-$312.14	50% 7751-7812 (15563)
LE LeLynxMalynxARB<$100	Overavg 55¢	$135.2	$134.56	-$0.64	54% 13805-11589 (25394)
└ Over leg	Overavg 55¢	$90.2	$88.56	-$1.64
└ Under leg	Underavg 45¢	$45	$46	+$1
us391<$100	Underavg 44¢	$42.07	$43.02	+$2.39	52% 1353-1269 (2622)
FO foooool<$100	Underavg 57¢	$24.51	$19.78	-$4.73	51% 6525-6313 (12838)
FF ff3364CTR<$100	Overavg 51¢	$14.27	$15.11	+$0.84	51% 689-662 (1351)
SN SnakeBall<$100	Underavg 68¢	$10.63	$10.63	+$0	50% 8797-8727 (17524)
VeryLucky888	Underavg 43.4¢	$692.46	$2.97	-$4.28	58% 31634-22891 (54525)
HRTrading<$100	Underavg 45¢	$1.15	$1.18	+$0.03	58% 1451-1066 (2517)

rabbitfoot1

Under

Invested

$5,912.8

Value

$6.1K

PnL

+$353.1

Record

53%

889-782 (1671)

RN1

Under

Invested

$1,273.32

Value

$1.9K

PnL

+$586.4

Record

55%

43485-35791 (79276)

GoalLineGhostCTR

Over

Invested

$3,550.72

Value

$1.3K

PnL

$-2.2K

Record

52%

16262-14802 (31064)

UpTheBlues

Under

Invested

$762.16

Value

$1.3K

PnL

+$489

Record

68%

31050-14947 (45997)

0x5b624e3E0426F7AA2Ca57F7451fbcEa4b125D87f-1769796221989CTR

Over

Invested

$1,202.74

Value

$1.2K

PnL

-$15.33

Record

69%

4251-1917 (6168)

0xheavy888ARB<$100

Over

Invested

$687.11

Value

$682.93

PnL

-$4.17

Record

56%

6347-5081 (11428)

Both legs:

Over$44455.5¢-$12

Under$243.1144.6¢+$7.83

Lilybaeum

Under

Invested

$186.38

Value

$259.84

PnL

+$73.45

Record

65%

12546-6669 (19215)

LuckyLooCTR

Over

Invested

$494.08

Value

$181.95

PnL

-$312.14

Record

50%

7751-7812 (15563)

LeLynxMalynxARB<$100

Over

Invested

$135.2

Value

$134.56

PnL

-$0.64

Record

54%

13805-11589 (25394)

Both legs:

Invested

$42.07

Value

$43.02

PnL

+$2.39

Record

52%

1353-1269 (2622)

foooool<$100

Under

Invested

$24.51

Value

$19.78

PnL

-$4.73

Record

51%

6525-6313 (12838)

ff3364CTR<$100

Over

Invested

$14.27

Value

$15.11

PnL

+$0.84

Record

51%

689-662 (1351)

SnakeBall<$100

Under

Invested

$10.63

Value

$10.63

PnL

+$0

Record

50%

8797-8727 (17524)

VeryLucky888

Under

Invested

$692.46

Value

$2.97

PnL

-$4.28

Record

58%

31634-22891 (54525)

HRTrading<$100

Under

Invested

$1.15

Value

$1.18

PnL

+$0.03

Record

58%

1451-1066 (2517)

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 81%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Spread or totalSpreads and totals: −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Favourite (60–95¢)0.70–0.90 was about break-even after costs, +0.4 % a trade (n 4,327); 0.60–0.95 with 70 %+ and $10k+ +2.9 % (n 955). The consensus beats its price by 2–3 points here, about what the costs take.

Smart Money Signal

Under

9 of 13 top traders (69%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

50% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Under) and the top 1000 (5 on Over) disagree here.

whaleUnder 67% · 3

Aligned

sharpOver 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrUnder 50% · 6

Aligned

Hand-pickedUnder 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Over 60% · 5

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Under wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance82.7%

81.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.7¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$20.86

Max Loss

-$100.00

120.9

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.