Fortuna Sittard vs. SBV Excelsior: O/U 1.5

3 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold Under (43%) · Under at 55¢ · $16K held · ended Oct 25

Over45¢Under55¢Ended Sun, Oct 25, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Under

Consensus Traders

Under 43%

4 arb excluded

Total Value

$15.9K

Combined PnL

$5.8K

Smart Money Entry

22.9¢ → 55¢

+140% since entry · 3 traders

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 55%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Spread or totalSpreads and totals: −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢0.50–0.70 lost −3.2 % a trade pooled (n 3,834).

Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Under

3 of 7 top traders (43%)4 arbitrage traders dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Over45%

Under55%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Under3 traders

Total Value$10.6K

Total Shares17,319

Combined PnL+$5.8K

Over4 traders

Total Value$1.6K

Total Shares3,727

Combined PnL-$16.99

Under — 43%Over — 57%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
UP UpTheBlues	Underavg 22.7¢	$4.7K	$10.5K	+$5.8K	68% 31050-14947 (45997)
GO GoalLineGhostARB<$100	Overavg 78.3¢	$1.7K	$2.2K	+$510.35	52% 16262-14802 (31064)
└ Under leg	Underavg 24.1¢	$705.91	$1.7K	+$976.74
└ Over leg	Overavg 78.3¢	$1.0K	$554.01	-$466.4
OM omnibus-076daaCTR	Overavg 44¢	$1.1K	$1.1K	-$11.44	59% 13855-9624 (23479)
RN1ARB<$100	Underavg 55.4¢	$772.87	$786.71	+$13.84	55% 43485-35791 (79276)
└ Under leg	Underavg 55.4¢	$454.67	$472.21	+$17.54
└ Over leg	Overavg 43¢	$318.2	$314.5	-$3.7
HRTradingARB<$100	Overavg 43¢	$338.39	$473.01	+$134.62	58% 1451-1066 (2517)
└ Over leg	Overavg 43¢	$251.98	$249.05	-$2.93
└ Under leg	Underavg 22.2¢	$86.41	$223.96	+$137.55
0X 0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080CTR	Overavg 43¢	$430	$425	-$5	51% 977-931 (1908)
FO foooool	Underavg 44¢	$86.67	$108.28	+$21.61	51% 6525-6313 (12838)
LE LeLynxMalynxARB<$100	Overavg 79¢	$97.83	$99.56	+$1.73	54% 13805-11589 (25394)
└ Over leg	Overavg 79¢	$70.31	$69.42	-$0.89
└ Under leg	Underavg 20.1¢	$27.52	$30.14	+$2.62
SA Saber-greedCTR<$100	Overavg 44¢	$54.68	$54.06	-$0.62	59% 2260-1573 (3833)
SN SnakeBall<$100	Underavg 23.7¢	$26.9	$53.93	+$27.03	50% 8797-8727 (17524)
LA LaarsYCTR<$100	Overavg 43¢	$1.66	$1.74	+$0.08	50% 2983-3009 (5992)

UpTheBlues

Under

Invested

$4,713.85

Value

$10.5K

PnL

+$5.8K

Record

68%

31050-14947 (45997)

GoalLineGhostARB<$100

Over

Invested

$1,726.31

Value

$2.2K

PnL

+$510.35

Record

52%

16262-14802 (31064)

Both legs:

Under$705.9124.1¢+$976.74

Over$1,020.4178.3¢-$466.4

omnibus-076daaCTR

Over

Invested

$1,147.44

Value

$1.1K

PnL

-$11.44

Record

59%

13855-9624 (23479)

RN1ARB<$100

Under

Invested

$772.87

Value

$786.71

PnL

+$13.84

Record

55%

43485-35791 (79276)

Both legs:

Under$454.6755.4¢+$17.54

Over$318.243¢-$3.7

HRTradingARB<$100

Over

Invested

$338.39

Value

$473.01

PnL

+$134.62

Record

58%

1451-1066 (2517)

Both legs:

Over$251.9843¢-$2.93

Under$86.4122.2¢+$137.55

0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080CTR

Over

Invested

$430

Value

$425

PnL

-$5

Record

51%

977-931 (1908)

foooool

Under

Invested

$86.67

Value

$108.28

PnL

+$21.61

Record

51%

6525-6313 (12838)

LeLynxMalynxARB<$100

Over

Invested

$97.83

Value

$99.56

PnL

+$1.73

Record

54%

13805-11589 (25394)

Both legs:

Over$70.3179¢-$0.89

Under$27.5220.1¢+$2.62

Saber-greedCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$54.68

Value

$54.06

PnL

-$0.62

Record

59%

2260-1573 (3833)

SnakeBall<$100

Under

Invested

$26.9

Value

$53.93

PnL

+$27.03

Record

50%

8797-8727 (17524)

LaarsYCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$1.66

Value

$1.74

PnL

+$0.08

Record

50%

2983-3009 (5992)

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 55%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Spread or totalSpreads and totals: −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢0.50–0.70 lost −3.2 % a trade pooled (n 3,834).

Smart Money Signal

Under

3 of 7 top traders (43%)4 arbitrage traders dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Under wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance57.2%

55.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$74.73

Max Loss

-$100.00

174.7

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.