Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (64%). 6 of 6 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Will Fortuna Sittard win on 2026-10-25?
6 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (100%) · Yes at 37¢ · $1K held · ends Oct 25
⚖️
Neutral
Yes
6
Yes 100%
$1.1K
-$43.69
38.5¢ → 36.5¢
-5% since entry · 6 traders
Research grade
NeutralYes at 37%
No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).
- Side priced 30–50¢0.30–0.50 lost −6.5 % a trade pooled (n 2,793), a little worse than the plain consensus.
Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
6 of 6 top traders (100%)Underdog side (market favors No 64%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
6 traders
Top 2 hold 55%
Freshness
Fresh
1h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
100% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 55% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 VeryLucky888CTR | Yesavg 38¢ | $532.36 | $333 | -$8.64 | 58% 31395-22700 (54095) |
CA CannaeCTR | Yesavg 38.6¢ | $287.04 | $275.21 | -$11.83 | 53% 13553-11995 (25548) |
 0xheavy888CTR | Yesavg 38¢ | $228 | $222 | -$6 | 55% 6317-5068 (11385) |
LU LuckyLooCTR | Yesavg 40¢ | $142.36 | $131.68 | -$10.68 | 50% 7629-7782 (15411) |
LE LeLynxMalynxCTR | Yesavg 38.8¢ | $137.52 | $130.98 | -$6.54 | 54% 13697-11517 (25214) |
 HRTradingCTR<$100 | Yesavg 37¢ | $21.46 | $21.46 | +$0 | 58% 1363-997 (2360) |
VeryLucky888CTRInvested
$532.36
Value
$333
PnL
-$8.64
Record
58%
31395-22700 (54095)
Invested
$287.04
Value
$275.21
PnL
-$11.83
Record
53%
13553-11995 (25548)
0xheavy888CTRInvested
$228
Value
$222
PnL
-$6
Record
55%
6317-5068 (11385)
Invested
$142.36
Value
$131.68
PnL
-$10.68
Record
50%
7629-7782 (15411)
Invested
$137.52
Value
$130.98
PnL
-$6.54
Record
54%
13697-11517 (25214)
HRTradingCTR<$100Invested
$21.46
Value
$21.46
PnL
+$0
Record
58%
1363-997 (2360)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
36.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.