Will Fortuna Sittard vs. SBV Excelsior end in a draw?

5 of 11 top Polymarket traders hold No (45%) · No at 61¢ · $11K held · ended Oct 25

Yes40¢No60¢Ended Sun, Oct 25, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 45%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$10.8K

Combined PnL

$75.34

Smart Money Entry

71.4¢ → 60.5¢

-15% since entry · 5 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 61%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)0.70–0.90 was about break-even after costs, +0.4 % a trade (n 4,327); 0.60–0.95 with 70 %+ and $10k+ +2.9 % (n 955). The consensus beats its price by 2–3 points here, about what the costs take.

Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

5 of 11 top traders (45%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed6 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes40%

No61%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No5 traders

Total Value$8.0K

Total Shares11,143

Combined PnL+$68.43

Yes6 traders

Total Value$764.12

Total Shares2,606

Combined PnL+$6.91

No — 45%Yes — 55%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0xB985b597F5598a975C42032749386D765826B70d-1781959038065	Noavg 72¢	$7.0K	$7.1K	+$97.02	60% 181-119 (300)
UP UpTheBluesARB<$100	Noavg 72.6¢	$2.2K	$2.0K	-$177.45	68% 31050-14947 (45997)
└ No leg	Noavg 72.6¢	$1.7K	$1.4K	-$255.41
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 33.4¢	$511.48	$589.44	+$77.96
GO GoalLineGhost	Noavg 67.4¢	$471.31	$472.04	+$0.73	52% 16262-14802 (31064)
oieshfn345	Noavg 65.3¢	$369.59	$342.18	-$27.41	57% 1457-1081 (2538)
LU LuckyLooCTR	Yesavg 28¢	$259.42	$250.16	-$9.26	50% 7751-7812 (15563)
RN1CTR	Yesavg 28¢	$218.4	$210.6	-$7.8	55% 43485-35791 (79276)
LI LilybaeumCTR	Yesavg 28¢	$159.69	$153.99	-$5.7	65% 12546-6669 (19215)
FO fooooolCTR	Yesavg 28¢	$99.37	$127.68	+$28.31	51% 6525-6313 (12838)
LE LeLynxMalynx	Noavg 73¢	$121.18	$119.52	-$1.66	54% 13805-11589 (25394)
HRTradingCTR<$100	Yesavg 33.2¢	$19.92	$21.3	+$1.38	58% 1451-1066 (2517)
BE Betziko<$100	Noavg 64¢	$6.4	$6.15	-$0.25	55% 4838-4027 (8865)
CA CannaeCTR<$100	Yesavg 28¢	$0.41	$0.39	-$0.01	53% 13576-12017 (25593)

0xB985b597F5598a975C42032749386D765826B70d-1781959038065

Invested

$6,985.5

Value

$7.1K

PnL

+$97.02

Record

60%

181-119 (300)

UpTheBluesARB<$100

Invested

$2,184.9

Value

$2.0K

PnL

-$177.45

Record

68%

31050-14947 (45997)

Both legs:

No$1,673.4272.6¢-$255.41

Yes$511.4833.4¢+$77.96

GoalLineGhost

Invested

$471.31

Value

$472.04

PnL

+$0.73

Record

52%

16262-14802 (31064)

oieshfn345

Invested

$369.59

Value

$342.18

PnL

-$27.41

Record

57%

1457-1081 (2538)

LuckyLooCTR

Yes

Invested

$259.42

Value

$250.16

PnL

-$9.26

Record

50%

7751-7812 (15563)

RN1CTR

Yes

Invested

$218.4

Value

$210.6

PnL

-$7.8

Record

55%

43485-35791 (79276)

LilybaeumCTR

Yes

Invested

$159.69

Value

$153.99

PnL

-$5.7

Record

65%

12546-6669 (19215)

fooooolCTR

Yes

Invested

$99.37

Value

$127.68

PnL

+$28.31

Record

51%

6525-6313 (12838)

LeLynxMalynx

Invested

$121.18

Value

$119.52

PnL

-$1.66

Record

54%

13805-11589 (25394)

HRTradingCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$19.92

Value

$21.3

PnL

+$1.38

Record

58%

1451-1066 (2517)

Betziko<$100

Invested

$6.4

Value

$6.15

PnL

-$0.25

Record

55%

4838-4027 (8865)

CannaeCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.41

Value

$0.39

PnL

-$0.01

Record

53%

13576-12017 (25593)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 61%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)0.70–0.90 was about break-even after costs, +0.4 % a trade (n 4,327); 0.60–0.95 with 70 %+ and $10k+ +2.9 % (n 955). The consensus beats its price by 2–3 points here, about what the costs take.

Smart Money Signal

5 of 11 top traders (45%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed6 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance62.7%

60.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$59.53

Max Loss

-$100.00

159.5

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.