Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold No, while the market favors Yes (62%). 2 of 3 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Fortuna Sittard vs. SBV Excelsior: Both Teams to Score
2 of 3 top Polymarket traders hold No (67%) · No at 38¢ · $277 held · ends Oct 25
⚖️
Neutral
No
3
No 67%
$276.73
$4.79
39.1¢ → 38¢
-3% since entry · 2 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 38%
No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).
- Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
- Side priced 30–50¢0.30–0.50 lost −6.5 % a trade pooled (n 2,793), a little worse than the plain consensus.
Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 3 top traders (67%)Underdog side (market favors Yes 62%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
LE LeLynxMalynxCTR | Noavg 39.7¢ | $112.84 | $107.92 | -$4.92 | 54% 13750-11556 (25306) |
 VeryLucky888 | Yesavg 59.5¢ | $529.08 | $105.94 | +$9.71 | 58% 31536-22821 (54357) |
 0xheavy888CTR<$100 | Noavg 38¢ | $62.87 | $62.87 | +$0 | 56% 6332-5072 (11404) |
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
38.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.