PSV vs. Feyenoord Rotterdam: O/U 5.5

3 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Under (60%) · Under at 100¢ · $2K held · ended Oct 25

Over<1¢Under>99¢Ended Sun, Oct 25, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Under

Consensus Traders

Under 60%

Total Value

$1.6K

Combined PnL

$30

Smart Money Entry

89.9¢ → 100¢

+11% since entry · 3 traders

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 100%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Side priced over 95¢0.90–0.99 was −0.2 % a trade (n 4,210); above 95¢ little is left to win and the backtests' bands stop at 0.95.
Spread or totalSpreads and totals: −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.

Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Under

3 of 5 top traders (60%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Over0%

Under100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Under3 traders

Total Value$1.5K

Total Shares1,593

Combined PnL+$31.48

Over2 traders

Total Value$82.83

Total Shares981

Combined PnL-$1.49

Under — 60%Over — 40%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
UP UpTheBlues	Underavg 90.7¢	$1.3K	$1.3K	+$19.45	68% 31167-14971 (46138)
0xheavy888<$100	Underavg 82¢	$78.72	$88.32	+$9.6	56% 6357-5092 (11449)
GO GoalLineGhostCTR<$100	Overavg 8.1¢	$83.92	$82.43	-$1.49	52% 16287-14836 (31123)
FO foooool<$100	Underavg 83¢	$47.04	$50.23	+$2.43	51% 6565-6327 (12892)
RN1CTR<$100	Overavg 8¢	$0.4	$0.4	+$0	55% 43540-35826 (79366)

UpTheBlues

Under

Invested

$1,311.24

Value

$1.3K

PnL

+$19.45

Record

68%

31167-14971 (46138)

0xheavy888<$100

Under

Invested

$78.72

Value

$88.32

PnL

+$9.6

Record

56%

6357-5092 (11449)

GoalLineGhostCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$83.92

Value

$82.43

PnL

-$1.49

Record

52%

16287-14836 (31123)

foooool<$100

Under

Invested

$47.04

Value

$50.23

PnL

+$2.43

Record

51%

6565-6327 (12892)

RN1CTR<$100

Over

Invested

$0.4

Value

$0.4

PnL

+$0

Record

55%

43540-35826 (79366)

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 100%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Side priced over 95¢0.90–0.99 was −0.2 % a trade (n 4,210); above 95¢ little is left to win and the backtests' bands stop at 0.95.
Spread or totalSpreads and totals: −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.

Smart Money Signal

Under

3 of 5 top traders (60%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Under wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.