PSV vs. Feyenoord Rotterdam: O/U 4.5
4 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Under (80%) · Under at 100¢ · $5K held · ended Oct 25
⚖️
Neutral
Under
5
Under 80%
$5.5K
$579.65
80.2¢ → 100¢
+25% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
NeutralUnder at 100%
No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).
- Side priced over 95¢0.90–0.99 was −0.2 % a trade (n 4,210); above 95¢ little is left to win and the backtests' bands stop at 0.95.
- Spread or totalSpreads and totals: −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 5 top traders (80%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
UP UpTheBlues | Underavg 80.7¢ | $2.2K | $2.6K | +$424.14 | 68% 31167-14971 (46138) |
GO GoalLineGhost | Underavg 80.6¢ | $2.4K | $2.4K | +$12.9 | 52% 16287-14836 (31123) |
FO fooooolCTR | Overavg 8¢ | $154.09 | $261.88 | +$107.78 | 51% 6565-6327 (12892) |
 RN1 | Underavg 69¢ | $143.96 | $176.86 | +$32.9 | 55% 43540-35826 (79366) |
 0xheavy888<$100 | Underavg 67¢ | $7.15 | $9.07 | +$1.92 | 56% 6357-5092 (11449) |
Invested
$2,172.43
Value
$2.6K
PnL
+$424.14
Record
68%
31167-14971 (46138)
Invested
$2,430.09
Value
$2.4K
PnL
+$12.9
Record
52%
16287-14836 (31123)
Invested
$154.09
Value
$261.88
PnL
+$107.78
Record
51%
6565-6327 (12892)
RN1Invested
$143.96
Value
$176.86
PnL
+$32.9
Record
55%
43540-35826 (79366)
0xheavy888<$100Invested
$7.15
Value
$9.07
PnL
+$1.92
Record
56%
6357-5092 (11449)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.