PSV vs. Feyenoord Rotterdam: O/U 3.5

7 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold Under (70%) · Under at 66¢ · $13K held · ended Oct 25

Over35¢Under65¢Ended Sun, Oct 25, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Under

Consensus Traders

Under 70%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$13.0K

Combined PnL

$1.7K

Smart Money Entry

46.9¢ → 65.5¢

+40% since entry · 7 traders

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 66%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Spread or totalSpreads and totals: −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Favourite (60–95¢)0.70–0.90 was about break-even after costs, +0.4 % a trade (n 4,327); 0.60–0.95 with 70 %+ and $10k+ +2.9 % (n 955). The consensus beats its price by 2–3 points here, about what the costs take.

Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Under

7 of 10 top traders (70%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Over35%

Under66%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Under7 traders

Total Value$11.8K

Total Shares20,230

Combined PnL+$2.2K

Over3 traders

Total Value$1.1K

Total Shares3,300

Combined PnL-$491.43

Under — 70%Over — 30%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 98%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

100% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 98% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleUnder 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrUnder 100% · 4

Aligned

Hand-pickedUnder 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Under 100% · 3

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
KY Kyn008	Underavg 46¢	$7.9K	$10.2K	+$2.2K	50% 191-188 (379)
GO GoalLineGhostCTR	Overavg 48.5¢	$1.6K	$1.1K	-$492.36	52% 16273-14816 (31089)
RN1	Underavg 64.2¢	$564.99	$584.85	+$19.87	55% 43532-35822 (79354)
UP UpTheBlues	Underavg 48.4¢	$606.12	$557.71	-$48.41	68% 31121-14960 (46081)
LE LeLynxMalynx	Underavg 45.5¢	$295.6	$303.62	+$8.02	54% 13813-11594 (25407)
FO fooooolARB<$100	Underavg 65.6¢	$126.33	$114.49	-$11.84	51% 6539-6324 (12863)
└ Under leg	Underavg 65.6¢	$76.53	$77.64	+$1.11
└ Over leg	Overavg 45.3¢	$49.8	$36.85	-$12.95
us391<$100	Underavg 46¢	$81.71	$81.71	+$0.89	52% 1355-1270 (2625)
NA NatoAlfista<$100	Underavg 46¢	$69	$69	+$0	66% 2852-1493 (4345)
HRTrading<$100	Underavg 50.7¢	$20.31	$20.02	-$0.29	58% 1463-1078 (2541)
LU LuckyLooCTR<$100	Overavg 50¢	$6.23	$6.6	+$0.37	50% 7759-7812 (15571)
SN SnakeBallCTR<$100	Overavg 42¢	$2.14	$2.7	+$0.56	50% 8804-8737 (17541)

Kyn008

Under

Invested

$7,917.41

Value

$10.2K

PnL

+$2.2K

Record

50%

191-188 (379)

GoalLineGhostCTR

Over

Invested

$1,592.06

Value

$1.1K

PnL

-$492.36

Record

52%

16273-14816 (31089)

RN1

Under

Invested

$564.99

Value

$584.85

PnL

+$19.87

Record

55%

43532-35822 (79354)

UpTheBlues

Under

Invested

$606.12

Value

$557.71

PnL

-$48.41

Record

68%

31121-14960 (46081)

LeLynxMalynx

Under

Invested

$295.6

Value

$303.62

PnL

+$8.02

Record

54%

13813-11594 (25407)

fooooolARB<$100

Under

Invested

$126.33

Value

$114.49

PnL

-$11.84

Record

51%

6539-6324 (12863)

Both legs:

Under$76.5365.6¢+$1.11

Over$49.845.3¢-$12.95

us391<$100

Under

Invested

$81.71

Value

$81.71

PnL

+$0.89

Record

52%

1355-1270 (2625)

NatoAlfista<$100

Under

Invested

$69

Value

$69

PnL

+$0

Record

66%

2852-1493 (4345)

HRTrading<$100

Under

Invested

$20.31

Value

$20.02

PnL

-$0.29

Record

58%

1463-1078 (2541)

LuckyLooCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$6.23

Value

$6.6

PnL

+$0.37

Record

50%

7759-7812 (15571)

SnakeBallCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$2.14

Value

$2.7

PnL

+$0.56

Record

50%

8804-8737 (17541)

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 66%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Spread or totalSpreads and totals: −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Favourite (60–95¢)0.70–0.90 was about break-even after costs, +0.4 % a trade (n 4,327); 0.60–0.95 with 70 %+ and $10k+ +2.9 % (n 955). The consensus beats its price by 2–3 points here, about what the costs take.

Smart Money Signal

Under

7 of 10 top traders (70%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 98%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

100% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 98% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleUnder 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrUnder 100% · 4

Aligned

Hand-pickedUnder 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Under 100% · 3

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Under wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance67.6%

65.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$47.90

Max Loss

-$100.00

147.9

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.