PSV vs. Feyenoord Rotterdam: O/U 2.5

8 of 12 top Polymarket traders hold Under (67%) · Under at 100¢ · $27K held · ended Oct 25

Over<1¢Under>99¢Ended Sun, Oct 25, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Under

Consensus Traders

Under 67%

2 arb excluded

Total Value

$27.3K

Combined PnL

$5.9K

Smart Money Entry

46.2¢ → 99.5¢

+116% since entry · 8 traders

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 100%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Side priced over 95¢0.90–0.99 was −0.2 % a trade (n 4,210); above 95¢ little is left to win and the backtests' bands stop at 0.95.
Spread or totalSpreads and totals: −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.

Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Under

8 of 12 top traders (67%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Over1%

Under100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Under8 traders

Total Value$18.9K

Total Shares24,666

Combined PnL+$6.5K

Over4 traders

Total Value$7.4K

Total Shares12,313

Combined PnL-$596.43

Under — 67%Over — 33%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
UP UpTheBlues	Underavg 37.7¢	$3.0K	$5.0K	+$2.0K	68% 31167-14971 (46138)
RN1	Underavg 46.1¢	$2.8K	$4.8K	+$2.0K	55% 43540-35826 (79366)
0X 0x8191c793fd7edbadf0fae651f55c1da3b638da72	Underavg 78¢	$3.5K	$3.8K	+$312.11	72% 1831-717 (2548)
MA MagnabelliCTR	Overavg 80.5¢	$4.3K	$3.6K	-$662.12	78% 559-160 (719)
GO GoalLineGhost	Underavg 38.9¢	$2.2K	$3.4K	+$1.3K	52% 16287-14836 (31123)
IM impaulCTR	Overavg 50.6¢	$2.5K	$2.5K	-$54.81	62% 179-110 (289)
DA dartanyan150CTR	Overavg 62¢	$1.2K	$1.4K	+$120	69% 205-94 (299)
SN SnakeBall	Underavg 29.2¢	$604.82	$953.17	+$348.35	50% 8808-8746 (17554)
LI Lilybaeum	Underavg 31.4¢	$365.49	$858.96	+$493.47	65% 12547-6672 (19219)
0X 0xE337F5A28E9C530a676C959A1888Ba5368664ad6-1779639269540ARB<$100	Overavg 97¢	$945.76	$688.98	-$256.77	81% 1898-451 (2349)
└ Over leg	Overavg 97¢	$668.32	$423.73	-$244.59
└ Under leg	Underavg 40.3¢	$277.44	$265.25	-$12.18
FO fooooolARB<$100	Overavg 54.2¢	$217.81	$208.6	-$9.21	51% 6565-6327 (12892)
└ Over leg	Overavg 54.2¢	$141.08	$128.93	-$12.15
└ Under leg	Underavg 48.6¢	$76.73	$79.67	+$2.94
RA rabbitfoot1<$100	Underavg 87¢	$41.05	$40.11	-$0.94	53% 899-789 (1688)
HRTrading<$100	Underavg 58.9¢	$9.75	$13.14	+$3.39	58% 1472-1088 (2560)
LU LuckyLooCTR<$100	Overavg 13¢	$3.25	$3.75	+$0.5	50% 7761-7812 (15573)

UpTheBlues

Under

Invested

$3,009.76

Value

$5.0K

PnL

+$2.0K

Record

68%

31167-14971 (46138)

RN1

Under

Invested

$2,805.2

Value

$4.8K

PnL

+$2.0K

Record

55%

43540-35826 (79366)

0x8191c793fd7edbadf0fae651f55c1da3b638da72

Under

Invested

$3,454.57

Value

$3.8K

PnL

+$312.11

Record

72%

1831-717 (2548)

MagnabelliCTR

Over

Invested

$4,258.06

Value

$3.6K

PnL

-$662.12

Record

78%

559-160 (719)

GoalLineGhost

Under

Invested

$2,150.35

Value

$3.4K

PnL

+$1.3K

Record

52%

16287-14836 (31123)

impaulCTR

Over

Invested

$2,529.81

Value

$2.5K

PnL

-$54.81

Record

62%

179-110 (289)

dartanyan150CTR

Over

Invested

$1,240

Value

$1.4K

PnL

+$120

Record

69%

205-94 (299)

SnakeBall

Under

Invested

$604.82

Value

$953.17

PnL

+$348.35

Record

50%

8808-8746 (17554)

Lilybaeum

Under

Invested

$365.49

Value

$858.96

PnL

+$493.47

Record

65%

12547-6672 (19219)

0xE337F5A28E9C530a676C959A1888Ba5368664ad6-1779639269540ARB<$100

Over

Invested

$945.76

Value

$688.98

PnL

-$256.77

Record

81%

1898-451 (2349)

Both legs:

Over$668.3297¢-$244.59

Under$277.4440.3¢-$12.18

fooooolARB<$100

Over

Invested

$217.81

Value

$208.6

PnL

-$9.21

Record

51%

6565-6327 (12892)

Both legs:

Over$141.0854.2¢-$12.15

Under$76.7348.6¢+$2.94

rabbitfoot1<$100

Under

Invested

$41.05

Value

$40.11

PnL

-$0.94

Record

53%

899-789 (1688)

HRTrading<$100

Under

Invested

$9.75

Value

$13.14

PnL

+$3.39

Record

58%

1472-1088 (2560)

LuckyLooCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$3.25

Value

$3.75

PnL

+$0.5

Record

50%

7761-7812 (15573)

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 100%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Side priced over 95¢0.90–0.99 was −0.2 % a trade (n 4,210); above 95¢ little is left to win and the backtests' bands stop at 0.95.
Spread or totalSpreads and totals: −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.

Smart Money Signal

Under

8 of 12 top traders (67%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Under wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

99.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.