PSV vs. Feyenoord Rotterdam: O/U 1.5
2 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold Over (29%) · Over at 89¢ · $6K held · ended Oct 25
⚖️
Neutral
Over
7
Over 29%
$6.5K
$100.78
89.8¢ → 89.1¢
-1% since entry · 2 traders
Research grade
NeutralOver at 89%
No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).
- Spread or totalSpreads and totals: −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Favourite (60–95¢)0.70–0.90 was about break-even after costs, +0.4 % a trade (n 4,327); 0.60–0.95 with 70 %+ and $10k+ +2.9 % (n 955). The consensus beats its price by 2–3 points here, about what the costs take.
Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 7 top traders (29%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
MA Magnabelli | Overavg 89.8¢ | $5.2K | $5.1K | -$55.69 | 78% 557-160 (717) |
GO GoalLineGhostCTR | Underavg 9.6¢ | $576.67 | $670.85 | +$94.18 | 52% 16273-14816 (31089) |
 Socialista | Overavg 91¢ | $273 | $287.7 | +$14.7 | 62% 2261-1415 (3676) |
 RN1CTR | Underavg 9.7¢ | $197.13 | $226.85 | +$29.72 | 55% 43532-35822 (79354) |
SN SnakeBallCTR<$100 | Underavg 7.2¢ | $66.9 | $88.34 | +$21.44 | 50% 8804-8737 (17541) |
FO fooooolCTR<$100 | Underavg 10.7¢ | $43.89 | $44.94 | -$0.01 | 51% 6539-6324 (12863) |
UP UpTheBluesCTR<$100 | Underavg 9.9¢ | $11.44 | $7.88 | -$3.56 | 68% 31121-14960 (46081) |
Invested
$5,200
Value
$5.1K
PnL
-$55.69
Record
78%
557-160 (717)
Invested
$576.67
Value
$670.85
PnL
+$94.18
Record
52%
16273-14816 (31089)
SocialistaInvested
$273
Value
$287.7
PnL
+$14.7
Record
62%
2261-1415 (3676)
RN1CTRInvested
$197.13
Value
$226.85
PnL
+$29.72
Record
55%
43532-35822 (79354)
Invested
$66.9
Value
$88.34
PnL
+$21.44
Record
50%
8804-8737 (17541)
Invested
$43.89
Value
$44.94
PnL
-$0.01
Record
51%
6539-6324 (12863)
Invested
$11.44
Value
$7.88
PnL
-$3.56
Record
68%
31121-14960 (46081)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
89.1¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.4¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.