Spread: PSV (-2.5)

2 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold Feyenoord Rotterdam (50%) · Feyenoord Rotterdam at 83¢ · $2K held · ended Oct 25

PSV17¢Feyenoord Rotterdam83¢Ended Sun, Oct 25, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Feyenoord Rotterdam

Consensus Traders

Feyenoord Rotterdam 50%

Total Value

$2.3K

Combined PnL

-$3.75

Smart Money Entry

96.8¢ → 83¢

-14% since entry · 2 traders

Research grade

NeutralFeyenoord Rotterdam at 83%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Spread or totalSpreads and totals: −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)0.70–0.90 was about break-even after costs, +0.4 % a trade (n 4,327); 0.60–0.95 with 70 %+ and $10k+ +2.9 % (n 955). The consensus beats its price by 2–3 points here, about what the costs take.

Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Feyenoord Rotterdam

2 of 4 top traders (50%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

PSV17%

Feyenoord Rotterdam83%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Feyenoord Rotterdam2 traders

Total Value$1.9K

Total Shares2,308

Combined PnL-$316.05

PSV2 traders

Total Value$381.54

Total Shares2,244

Combined PnL+$312.3

Feyenoord Rotterdam — 50%PSV — 50%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
UP UpTheBlues	Feyenoord Rotterdamavg 97¢	$2.2K	$1.9K	-$316.81	68% 31167-14971 (46138)
GO GoalLineGhostCTR	PSVavg 3¢	$67.77	$379.75	+$311.98	52% 16287-14836 (31123)
FO foooool<$100	Feyenoord Rotterdamavg 86¢	$29.26	$30.02	+$0.76	51% 6565-6327 (12892)
HRTradingCTR<$100	PSVavg 14¢	$1.47	$1.79	+$0.32	58% 1472-1088 (2560)

UpTheBlues

Feyenoord Rotterdam

Invested

$2,200.77

Value

$1.9K

PnL

-$316.81

Record

68%

31167-14971 (46138)

GoalLineGhostCTR

PSV

Invested

$67.77

Value

$379.75

PnL

+$311.98

Record

52%

16287-14836 (31123)

foooool<$100

Feyenoord Rotterdam

Invested

$29.26

Value

$30.02

PnL

+$0.76

Record

51%

6565-6327 (12892)

HRTradingCTR<$100

PSV

Invested

$1.47

Value

$1.79

PnL

+$0.32

Record

58%

1472-1088 (2560)

Research grade

NeutralFeyenoord Rotterdam at 83%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Spread or totalSpreads and totals: −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)0.70–0.90 was about break-even after costs, +0.4 % a trade (n 4,327); 0.60–0.95 with 70 %+ and $10k+ +2.9 % (n 955). The consensus beats its price by 2–3 points here, about what the costs take.

Smart Money Signal

Feyenoord Rotterdam

2 of 4 top traders (50%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Feyenoord Rotterdam wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance84.7%

83.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.7¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$18.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

118.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.