Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (55%). 1 of 7 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Will PSV win on 2026-10-25?
1 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (14%) · Yes at 46¢ · $9K held · ends Oct 25
⚖️
Neutral
Yes
7
Yes 14%
1 arb excluded
$9.4K
$38.14
Research grade
NeutralYes at 46%
No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Side priced 30–50¢0.30–0.50 lost −6.5 % a trade pooled (n 2,793), a little worse than the plain consensus.
Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
1 of 7 top traders (14%)Underdog side (market favors No 55%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed1 holds an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
PO PoeloepCTR | Yesavg 47.1¢ | $5.1K | $5.1K | +$40.45 | 60% 309-208 (517) |
0X 0x5b624e3E0426F7AA2Ca57F7451fbcEa4b125D87f-1769796221989 | Noavg 53¢ | $2.1K | $2.1K | -$20 | 69% 4216-1907 (6123) |
OM omnibus-076daa | Noavg 51¢ | $803.9 | $827.54 | +$23.64 | 59% 13747-9558 (23305) |
GO GoalLineGhostARB<$100 | Noavg 53¢ | $808.58 | $811.43 | +$2.85 | 52% 16158-14689 (30847) |
| └ No leg | Noavg 53¢ | $559.32 | $554.04 | -$5.28 | |
| └ Yes leg | Yesavg 46¢ | $249.26 | $257.39 | +$8.13 | |
CA Cannae | Noavg 53¢ | $336.96 | $333.78 | -$3.18 | 53% 13553-11995 (25548) |
LE LeLynxMalynx | Noavg 53.5¢ | $117.07 | $114.98 | -$2.09 | 54% 13697-11517 (25214) |
UP UpTheBlues<$100 | Noavg 54¢ | $18.9 | $18.38 | -$0.52 | 68% 30779-14814 (45593) |
AJ AJSV<$100 | Noavg 54¢ | $5.4 | $5.25 | -$0.15 | 36% 12781-22373 (35154) |
Invested
$5,100
Value
$5.1K
PnL
+$40.45
Record
60%
309-208 (517)
Invested
$2,120
Value
$2.1K
PnL
-$20
Record
69%
4216-1907 (6123)
Invested
$803.9
Value
$827.54
PnL
+$23.64
Record
59%
13747-9558 (23305)
Invested
$808.58
Value
$811.43
PnL
+$2.85
Record
52%
16158-14689 (30847)
Both legs:
Invested
$336.96
Value
$333.78
PnL
-$3.18
Record
53%
13553-11995 (25548)
Invested
$117.07
Value
$114.98
PnL
-$2.09
Record
54%
13697-11517 (25214)
Invested
$18.9
Value
$18.38
PnL
-$0.52
Record
68%
30779-14814 (45593)
Invested
$5.4
Value
$5.25
PnL
-$0.15
Record
36%
12781-22373 (35154)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
45.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.