PSV vs. Feyenoord Rotterdam: 1st Half O/U 1.5

3 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Under (60%) · Under at 100¢ · $8K held · ended Oct 25

Over<1¢Under>99¢Ended Sun, Oct 25, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Under

Consensus Traders

Under 60%

Total Value

$7.8K

Combined PnL

$1.3K

Smart Money Entry

73.6¢ → 100¢

+36% since entry · 3 traders

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 100%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Side priced over 95¢0.90–0.99 was −0.2 % a trade (n 4,210); above 95¢ little is left to win and the backtests' bands stop at 0.95.
Spread or totalSpreads and totals: −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.

Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Under

3 of 5 top traders (60%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Over0%

Under100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Under3 traders

Total Value$6.5K

Total Shares6,532

Combined PnL+$1.6K

Over2 traders

Total Value$1.3K

Total Shares1,872

Combined PnL-$338.24

Under — 60%Over — 40%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

60% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Over) and the top 1000 (4 on Under) disagree here.

whaleOver 100% · 1

Diverging

sharpUnder 67% · 3

Aligned

ctrUnder 50% · 2

Aligned

Hand-pickedOver 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Under 75% · 4

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0x8191c793fd7edbadf0fae651f55c1da3b638da72	Underavg 74.1¢	$4.7K	$6.4K	+$1.6K	72% 1831-717 (2548)
RN1CTR	Overavg 47.8¢	$1.6K	$1.3K	-$324.16	55% 43540-35826 (79366)
LE LeLynxMalynx	Underavg 48¢	$66.14	$137.44	+$15.92	54% 13815-11594 (25409)
MA MarquisDeMott<$100	Underavg 99.1¢	$18.61	$18.71	+$0.1	97% 1996-57 (2053)
HRTradingCTR<$100	Overavg 18.2¢	$14.35	$0.28	-$14.07	58% 1472-1088 (2560)

0x8191c793fd7edbadf0fae651f55c1da3b638da72

Under

Invested

$4,722.89

Value

$6.4K

PnL

+$1.6K

Record

72%

1831-717 (2548)

RN1CTR

Over

Invested

$1,620.03

Value

$1.3K

PnL

-$324.16

Record

55%

43540-35826 (79366)

LeLynxMalynx

Under

Invested

$66.14

Value

$137.44

PnL

+$15.92

Record

54%

13815-11594 (25409)

MarquisDeMott<$100

Under

Invested

$18.61

Value

$18.71

PnL

+$0.1

Record

97%

1996-57 (2053)

HRTradingCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$14.35

Value

$0.28

PnL

-$14.07

Record

58%

1472-1088 (2560)

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 100%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Side priced over 95¢0.90–0.99 was −0.2 % a trade (n 4,210); above 95¢ little is left to win and the backtests' bands stop at 0.95.
Spread or totalSpreads and totals: −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.

Smart Money Signal

Under

3 of 5 top traders (60%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

60% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Over) and the top 1000 (4 on Under) disagree here.

whaleOver 100% · 1

Diverging

sharpUnder 67% · 3

Aligned

ctrUnder 50% · 2

Aligned

Hand-pickedOver 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Under 75% · 4

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Under wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.