Will Feyenoord Rotterdam win on 2026-10-25?
5 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold No (63%) · No at 90¢ · $378 held · ended Oct 25
⚖️
Neutral
No
8
No 63%
1 arb excluded
$377.8
-$6.66
70.7¢ → 89.5¢
+27% since entry · 5 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 90%
No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).
- Favourite (60–95¢)0.70–0.90 was about break-even after costs, +0.4 % a trade (n 4,327); 0.60–0.95 with 70 %+ and $10k+ +2.9 % (n 955). The consensus beats its price by 2–3 points here, about what the costs take.
Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 8 top traders (63%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
UP UpTheBluesARB<$100 | Yesavg 28.2¢ | $365.89 | $219.01 | -$146.88 | 68% 31121-14960 (46081) |
| └ No leg | Noavg 85.3¢ | $132.26 | $140.28 | +$8.02 | |
| └ Yes leg | Yesavg 28.2¢ | $233.63 | $78.74 | -$154.89 | |
 VeryLucky888<$100 | Noavg 69¢ | $73.07 | $42.78 | -$0 | 58% 31660-22917 (54577) |
LI Lilybaeum<$100 | Noavg 71¢ | $41.61 | $40.44 | -$1.17 | 65% 12547-6671 (19218) |
LE LeLynxMalynx<$100 | Noavg 69¢ | $28.98 | $28.98 | -$0 | 54% 13813-11594 (25407) |
VD VD721lsj4938Dk388CTR<$100 | Yesavg 32¢ | $15.1 | $14.62 | -$0.48 | 55% 1299-1044 (2343) |
CA CannaeCTR<$100 | Yesavg 31¢ | $12.13 | $12.13 | +$0.2 | 53% 13578-12019 (25597) |
 HRTradingCTR<$100 | Yesavg 25.9¢ | $15.62 | $10.36 | -$5.26 | 58% 1463-1078 (2541) |
FO foooool<$100 | Noavg 87¢ | $5.22 | $5.25 | +$0.03 | 51% 6539-6324 (12863) |
BE Betziko<$100 | Noavg 84¢ | $4.2 | $4.23 | +$0.02 | 55% 4844-4028 (8872) |
Invested
$365.89
Value
$219.01
PnL
-$146.88
Record
68%
31121-14960 (46081)
Both legs:
VeryLucky888<$100Invested
$73.07
Value
$42.78
PnL
-$0
Record
58%
31660-22917 (54577)
Invested
$41.61
Value
$40.44
PnL
-$1.17
Record
65%
12547-6671 (19218)
Invested
$28.98
Value
$28.98
PnL
-$0
Record
54%
13813-11594 (25407)
Invested
$15.1
Value
$14.62
PnL
-$0.48
Record
55%
1299-1044 (2343)
Invested
$12.13
Value
$12.13
PnL
+$0.2
Record
53%
13578-12019 (25597)
HRTradingCTR<$100Invested
$15.62
Value
$10.36
PnL
-$5.26
Record
58%
1463-1078 (2541)
Invested
$5.22
Value
$5.25
PnL
+$0.03
Record
51%
6539-6324 (12863)
Invested
$4.2
Value
$4.23
PnL
+$0.02
Record
55%
4844-4028 (8872)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
89.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.4¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.