PSV vs. Feyenoord Rotterdam: Both Teams to Score

4 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (80%) · Yes at 73¢ · $726 held · ends Oct 25

Yes73¢No27¢Ends Sun, Oct 25, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 80%

Total Value

$726.4

Combined PnL

-$3.06

Smart Money Entry

73¢ → 72.5¢

-1% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

NeutralYes at 73%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Favourite (60–95¢)0.70–0.90 was about break-even after costs, +0.4 % a trade (n 4,327); 0.60–0.95 with 70 %+ and $10k+ +2.9 % (n 955). The consensus beats its price by 2–3 points here, about what the costs take.

Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

4 of 5 top traders (80%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes73%

No28%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes4 traders

Total Value$458.22

Total Shares625

Combined PnL+$2

No1 trader

Total Value$268.18

Total Shares1,012

Combined PnL-$5.06

Yes — 80%No — 20%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0xheavy888	Yesavg 73¢	$292	$294	+$2	55% 6317-5068 (11385)
UP UpTheBluesCTR	Noavg 27¢	$273.24	$268.18	-$5.06	68% 30779-14814 (45593)
VeryLucky888<$100	Yesavg 73¢	$91.25	$91.25	+$0	58% 31395-22700 (54095)
LE LeLynxMalynx<$100	Yesavg 73¢	$70.07	$70.07	-$0	54% 13697-11517 (25214)
0X 0x5b624e3E0426F7AA2Ca57F7451fbcEa4b125D87f-1769796221989<$100	Yesavg 73¢	$2.89	$2.89	+$0	69% 4216-1907 (6123)

0xheavy888

Yes

Invested

$292

Value

$294

PnL

+$2

Record

55%

6317-5068 (11385)

UpTheBluesCTR

Invested

$273.24

Value

$268.18

PnL

-$5.06

Record

68%

30779-14814 (45593)

VeryLucky888<$100

Yes

Invested

$91.25

Value

$91.25

PnL

+$0

Record

58%

31395-22700 (54095)

LeLynxMalynx<$100

Yes

Invested

$70.07

Value

$70.07

PnL

-$0

Record

54%

13697-11517 (25214)

0x5b624e3E0426F7AA2Ca57F7451fbcEa4b125D87f-1769796221989<$100

Yes

Invested

$2.89

Value

$2.89

PnL

+$0

Record

69%

4216-1907 (6123)

Research grade

NeutralYes at 73%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Favourite (60–95¢)0.70–0.90 was about break-even after costs, +0.4 % a trade (n 4,327); 0.60–0.95 with 70 %+ and $10k+ +2.9 % (n 955). The consensus beats its price by 2–3 points here, about what the costs take.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

4 of 5 top traders (80%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance74.5%

72.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$34.28

Max Loss

-$100.00

134.3

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.