NEC vs. FC Groningen: O/U 5.5

2 of 3 top Polymarket traders hold Under (67%) · Under at 83¢ · $578 held · ended Oct 25

Over17¢Under83¢Ended Sun, Oct 25, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Under

Consensus Traders

Under 67%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$578.19

Combined PnL

-$27.06

Smart Money Entry

84.7¢ → 83¢

-2% since entry · 2 traders

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 83%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Spread or totalSpreads and totals: −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)0.70–0.90 was about break-even after costs, +0.4 % a trade (n 4,327); 0.60–0.95 with 70 %+ and $10k+ +2.9 % (n 955). The consensus beats its price by 2–3 points here, about what the costs take.

Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Under

2 of 3 top traders (67%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed1 holds an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Over17%

Under83%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Under2 traders

Total Value$455.83

Total Shares563

Combined PnL-$20.88

Over1 trader

Total Value$52.47

Total Shares309

Combined PnL-$6.17

Under — 67%Over — 33%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0xheavy888	Underavg 84.7¢	$473.56	$452.79	-$20.77	56% 6364-5100 (11464)
FO fooooolARB<$100	Underavg 85¢	$74.87	$69.9	-$4.97	51% 6573-6335 (12908)
└ Under leg	Underavg 85¢	$49.98	$47.63	-$2.35
└ Over leg	Overavg 19¢	$24.89	$22.27	-$2.62
SK SkurwysynCTR<$100	Overavg 19¢	$58.64	$52.47	-$6.17	51% 238-226 (464)
HRTrading<$100	Underavg 84¢	$3.15	$3.04	-$0.11	57% 1491-1104 (2595)

0xheavy888

Under

Invested

$473.56

Value

$452.79

PnL

-$20.77

Record

56%

6364-5100 (11464)

fooooolARB<$100

Under

Invested

$74.87

Value

$69.9

PnL

-$4.97

Record

51%

6573-6335 (12908)

Both legs:

Invested

$58.64

Value

$52.47

PnL

-$6.17

Record

51%

238-226 (464)

HRTrading<$100

Under

Invested

$3.15

Value

$3.04

PnL

-$0.11

Record

57%

1491-1104 (2595)

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 83%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Spread or totalSpreads and totals: −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)0.70–0.90 was about break-even after costs, +0.4 % a trade (n 4,327); 0.60–0.95 with 70 %+ and $10k+ +2.9 % (n 955). The consensus beats its price by 2–3 points here, about what the costs take.

Smart Money Signal

Under

2 of 3 top traders (67%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed1 holds an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Under wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance84.7%

83.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.7¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$18.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

118.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.