NEC vs. FC Groningen: O/U 4.5
4 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Under (80%) · Under at 74¢ · $937 held · ended Oct 25
⚖️
Neutral
Under
5
Under 80%
1 arb excluded
$937.49
-$4
71.7¢ → 74¢
+3% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
NeutralUnder at 74%
No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).
- Spread or totalSpreads and totals: −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Favourite (60–95¢)0.70–0.90 was about break-even after costs, +0.4 % a trade (n 4,327); 0.60–0.95 with 70 %+ and $10k+ +2.9 % (n 955). The consensus beats its price by 2–3 points here, about what the costs take.
Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 5 top traders (80%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed1 holds an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 0xheavy888 | Underavg 71.4¢ | $360.36 | $368.96 | -$4.61 | 56% 6353-5083 (11436) |
GO GoalLineGhost | Underavg 72¢ | $272.57 | $274.46 | +$1.89 | 52% 16269-14809 (31078) |
 VeryLucky888CTR | Overavg 30¢ | $221.07 | $180.01 | -$1.14 | 58% 31642-22900 (54542) |
LE LeLynxMalynxARB<$100 | Underavg 71¢ | $83.66 | $82.9 | -$0.76 | 54% 13809-11592 (25401) |
| └ Under leg | Underavg 71¢ | $53.96 | $53.2 | -$0.76 | |
| └ Over leg | Overavg 30¢ | $29.7 | $29.7 | +$0 | |
UP UpTheBlues<$100 | Underavg 73¢ | $20.44 | $20.3 | -$0.14 | 68% 31119-14954 (46073) |
 HRTrading<$100 | Underavg 70¢ | $10.85 | $10.85 | +$0 | 58% 1460-1073 (2533) |
0xheavy888Invested
$360.36
Value
$368.96
PnL
-$4.61
Record
56%
6353-5083 (11436)
Invested
$272.57
Value
$274.46
PnL
+$1.89
Record
52%
16269-14809 (31078)
VeryLucky888CTRInvested
$221.07
Value
$180.01
PnL
-$1.14
Record
58%
31642-22900 (54542)
Invested
$83.66
Value
$82.9
PnL
-$0.76
Record
54%
13809-11592 (25401)
Both legs:
Invested
$20.44
Value
$20.3
PnL
-$0.14
Record
68%
31119-14954 (46073)
HRTrading<$100Invested
$10.85
Value
$10.85
PnL
+$0
Record
58%
1460-1073 (2533)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
74.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.9¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.