NEC vs. FC Groningen: O/U 3.5

4 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold Under (40%) · Under at 54¢ · $27K held · ended Oct 25

Over46¢Under54¢Ended Sun, Oct 25, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Under

Consensus Traders

Under 40%

2 arb excluded

Total Value

$27.2K

Combined PnL

$335.33

Smart Money Entry

52.1¢ → 54¢

+4% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 54%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Spread or totalSpreads and totals: −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢0.50–0.70 lost −3.2 % a trade pooled (n 3,834).

Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Under

4 of 10 top traders (40%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed6 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Over46%

Under54%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Under4 traders

Total Value$15.0K

Total Shares28,900

Combined PnL+$275.7

Over6 traders

Total Value$7.8K

Total Shares16,305

Combined PnL+$59.63

Under — 40%Over — 60%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

2 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

33% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (2 on Over) and the top 1000 (4 on Under) disagree here.

whaleOver 67% · 3

Diverging

sharpOver 50% · 2

Diverging

ctrOver 67% · 6

Diverging

Hand-pickedOver 100% · 2

Diverging

Top 1000Under 50% · 4

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
UP UpTheBlues	Underavg 53.3¢	$7.4K	$7.4K	+$26.95	68% 31119-14954 (46073)
RA rabbitfoot1	Underavg 50.8¢	$7.1K	$7.0K	+$242.73	53% 889-782 (1671)
GO GoalLineGhostARB<$100	Overavg 49.3¢	$4.3K	$4.2K	-$133.88	52% 16269-14809 (31078)
└ Over leg	Overavg 49.3¢	$2.6K	$2.5K	-$149.88
└ Under leg	Underavg 53¢	$1.7K	$1.7K	+$16
0X 0xE5F0AE9cc9aeF77ae3c2A64c9E69caa3F335dc1d-1773531520731CTR	Overavg 47¢	$3.8K	$3.7K	-$40	40% 510-750 (1260)
PP ppku6298CTR	Overavg 46¢	$1.5K	$1.5K	+$16.52	41% 53-76 (129)
us391CTR	Overavg 47.9¢	$1.3K	$1.3K	+$56.64	52% 1353-1269 (2622)
0X 0x5b624e3E0426F7AA2Ca57F7451fbcEa4b125D87f-1769796221989CTR	Overavg 49¢	$980	$1,000	+$20	69% 4259-1919 (6178)
SN SnakeBall	Underavg 53¢	$517.28	$522.16	+$4.88	50% 8802-8735 (17537)
LE LeLynxMalynxARB<$100	Overavg 48.3¢	$291.58	$299.5	+$7.92	54% 13809-11592 (25401)
└ Over leg	Overavg 48.3¢	$222.08	$230	+$7.92
└ Under leg	Underavg 50¢	$69.5	$69.5	+$0
0xheavy888CTR	Overavg 49¢	$98	$100	+$2	56% 6353-5083 (11436)
BE berlinskiesCTR<$100	Overavg 47¢	$70	$74.47	+$4.47	57% 4829-3602 (8431)
HRTrading<$100	Underavg 52.1¢	$43.12	$44.27	+$1.15	58% 1460-1073 (2533)

UpTheBlues

Under

Invested

$7,388.42

Value

$7.4K

PnL

+$26.95

Record

68%

31119-14954 (46073)

rabbitfoot1

Under

Invested

$7,097.43

Value

$7.0K

PnL

+$242.73

Record

53%

889-782 (1671)

GoalLineGhostARB<$100

Over

Invested

$4,304

Value

$4.2K

PnL

-$133.88

Record

52%

16269-14809 (31078)

Both legs:

Over$2,60849.3¢-$149.88

Under$1,695.9953¢+$16

0xE5F0AE9cc9aeF77ae3c2A64c9E69caa3F335dc1d-1773531520731CTR

Over

Invested

$3,760

Value

$3.7K

PnL

-$40

Record

40%

510-750 (1260)

ppku6298CTR

Over

Invested

$1,519.99

Value

$1.5K

PnL

+$16.52

Record

41%

53-76 (129)

us391CTR

Over

Invested

$1,269.14

Value

$1.3K

PnL

+$56.64

Record

52%

1353-1269 (2622)

0x5b624e3E0426F7AA2Ca57F7451fbcEa4b125D87f-1769796221989CTR

Over

Invested

$980

Value

$1,000

PnL

+$20

Record

69%

4259-1919 (6178)

SnakeBall

Under

Invested

$517.28

Value

$522.16

PnL

+$4.88

Record

50%

8802-8735 (17537)

LeLynxMalynxARB<$100

Over

Invested

$291.58

Value

$299.5

PnL

+$7.92

Record

54%

13809-11592 (25401)

Both legs:

Over$222.0848.3¢+$7.92

Under$69.550¢+$0

0xheavy888CTR

Over

Invested

$98

Value

$100

PnL

+$2

Record

56%

6353-5083 (11436)

berlinskiesCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$70

Value

$74.47

PnL

+$4.47

Record

57%

4829-3602 (8431)

HRTrading<$100

Under

Invested

$43.12

Value

$44.27

PnL

+$1.15

Record

58%

1460-1073 (2533)

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 54%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Spread or totalSpreads and totals: −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢0.50–0.70 lost −3.2 % a trade pooled (n 3,834).

Smart Money Signal

Under

4 of 10 top traders (40%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed6 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

2 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

33% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (2 on Over) and the top 1000 (4 on Under) disagree here.

whaleOver 67% · 3

Diverging

sharpOver 50% · 2

Diverging

ctrOver 67% · 6

Diverging

Hand-pickedOver 100% · 2

Diverging

Top 1000Under 50% · 4

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Under wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance56.2%

54.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$77.82

Max Loss

-$100.00

177.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.