NEC vs. FC Groningen: O/U 2.5
4 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold Over (57%) · Over at 100¢ · $1K held · ended Oct 25
⚖️
Neutral
Over
7
Over 57%
$1.2K
-$117.69
86.7¢ → 100¢
+15% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
NeutralOver at 100%
No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).
- Side priced over 95¢0.90–0.99 was −0.2 % a trade (n 4,210); above 95¢ little is left to win and the backtests' bands stop at 0.95.
- Spread or totalSpreads and totals: −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 7 top traders (57%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
LI Lilybaeum | Overavg 87.6¢ | $908.46 | $922.95 | +$14.49 | 65% 12547-6672 (19219) |
GO GoalLineGhostCTR | Underavg 16.9¢ | $384.06 | $250.05 | -$134.01 | 52% 16287-14836 (31123) |
LE LeLynxMalynx<$100 | Overavg 71¢ | $28.09 | $34.98 | +$6.89 | 54% 13815-11594 (25409) |
RO Rocky31<$100 | Overavg 66¢ | $6.6 | $8.9 | +$2.25 | 72% 1257-477 (1734) |
0X 0xE337F5A28E9C530a676C959A1888Ba5368664ad6-1779639269540<$100 | Overavg 99¢ | $8.73 | $7.85 | -$0.88 | 81% 1898-451 (2349) |
 RN1CTR<$100 | Underavg 32.2¢ | $8.11 | $2.77 | -$5.34 | 55% 43540-35826 (79366) |
 HRTradingCTR<$100 | Underavg 29¢ | $1.74 | $0.66 | -$1.08 | 58% 1472-1088 (2560) |
Invested
$908.46
Value
$922.95
PnL
+$14.49
Record
65%
12547-6672 (19219)
Invested
$384.06
Value
$250.05
PnL
-$134.01
Record
52%
16287-14836 (31123)
Invested
$28.09
Value
$34.98
PnL
+$6.89
Record
54%
13815-11594 (25409)
Invested
$6.6
Value
$8.9
PnL
+$2.25
Record
72%
1257-477 (1734)
Invested
$8.73
Value
$7.85
PnL
-$0.88
Record
81%
1898-451 (2349)
RN1CTR<$100Invested
$8.11
Value
$2.77
PnL
-$5.34
Record
55%
43540-35826 (79366)
HRTradingCTR<$100Invested
$1.74
Value
$0.66
PnL
-$1.08
Record
58%
1472-1088 (2560)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.