Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Under, while the market favors Over (94%). 2 of 3 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
NEC vs. FC Groningen: O/U 1.5
2 of 3 top Polymarket traders hold Under (67%) · Under at 6.3¢ · $121 held · ended Oct 25
⚠️
Avoid
Under
3
Under 67%
$120.73
$15.26
Research grade
AvoidUnder at 6%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the trading costs in the backtests.
- Consensus side under 30¢Longshots (0.05–0.30) lost −29.5 % a trade pooled (n 1,625; −22 % in spring, −35 % in October): the strongest effect in the backtests.
- Spread or totalSpreads and totals: −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 3 top traders (67%)Underdog side (market favors Over 94%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 0xheavy888<$100 | Overavg 88¢ | $73.92 | $73.92 | +$0 | 56% 6357-5092 (11449) |
 RN1CTR<$100 | Underavg 4.2¢ | $30.37 | $45.55 | +$15.18 | 55% 43540-35826 (79366) |
FO fooooolCTR<$100 | Underavg 5.9¢ | $1.18 | $1.26 | +$0.08 | 51% 6565-6327 (12892) |
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
6.3¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.3¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.