Will NEC win on 2026-10-25?

3 of 11 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (27%) · Yes at 51¢ · $29K held · ended Oct 25

Yes51¢No49¢Ended Sun, Oct 25, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 27%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$28.9K

Combined PnL

-$318.52

Smart Money Entry

47¢ → 50.5¢

+7% since entry · 3 traders

Research grade

NeutralYes at 51%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢0.50–0.70 lost −3.2 % a trade pooled (n 3,834).

Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

3 of 11 top traders (27%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed8 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes51%

No50%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes3 traders

Total Value$17.9K

Total Shares39,245

Combined PnL-$553.22

No8 traders

Total Value$8.2K

Total Shares15,101

Combined PnL+$234.7

Yes — 27%No — 73%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

1 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

14% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 100% · 3

Diverging

ctrNo 100% · 3

Diverging

Hand-pickedNo 100% · 5

Diverging

Top 1000No 67% · 3

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
1L 1l2ihj34li12u34	Yesavg 46.9¢	$16.0K	$15.4K	-$640	48% 114-124 (238)
0X 0xfB07F48542d2b655e9D0Bf1cC92a8a6Feee8e2cC-1782415802542CTR	Noavg 53¢	$3.2K	$3.3K	+$120	47% 1968-2204 (4172)
RN1CTR	Noavg 53¢	$2.6K	$2.8K	+$100	55% 43492-35800 (79292)
GO GoalLineGhostARB<$100	Noavg 53¢	$2.7K	$2.7K	+$13.93	52% 16269-14809 (31078)
└ No leg	Noavg 53¢	$1.8K	$1.9K	+$69.49
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 48¢	$889	$833.44	-$55.56
UP UpTheBlues	Yesavg 47.8¢	$2.4K	$2.5K	+$87.08	68% 31119-14954 (46073)
VeryLucky888CTR	Noavg 52.8¢	$828.9	$744.75	-$31.36	58% 31642-22900 (54542)
CA CannaeCTR	Noavg 53.2¢	$670.34	$693.5	+$23.15	53% 13577-12018 (25595)
SN SnakeBallCTR	Noavg 54¢	$279.18	$284.35	+$5.17	50% 8802-8735 (17537)
LE LeLynxMalynxCTR	Noavg 52.8¢	$185.25	$193.05	+$7.8	54% 13809-11592 (25401)
SL slimjoeCTR	Noavg 53¢	$157.41	$163.35	+$5.94	52% 5352-4963 (10315)
0xheavy888CTR	Noavg 53¢	$106	$110	+$4	56% 6353-5083 (11436)
HRTrading<$100	Yesavg 48¢	$4.82	$4.52	-$0.3	58% 1460-1073 (2533)

1l2ihj34li12u34

Yes

Invested

$16,007.73

Value

$15.4K

PnL

-$640

Record

48%

114-124 (238)

0xfB07F48542d2b655e9D0Bf1cC92a8a6Feee8e2cC-1782415802542CTR

Invested

$3,180

Value

$3.3K

PnL

+$120

Record

47%

1968-2204 (4172)

RN1CTR

Invested

$2,650

Value

$2.8K

PnL

+$100

Record

55%

43492-35800 (79292)

GoalLineGhostARB<$100

Invested

$2,730.47

Value

$2.7K

PnL

+$13.93

Record

52%

16269-14809 (31078)

Both legs:

No$1,841.4753¢+$69.49

Yes$88948¢-$55.56

UpTheBlues

Yes

Invested

$2,429.81

Value

$2.5K

PnL

+$87.08

Record

68%

31119-14954 (46073)

VeryLucky888CTR

Invested

$828.9

Value

$744.75

PnL

-$31.36

Record

58%

31642-22900 (54542)

CannaeCTR

Invested

$670.34

Value

$693.5

PnL

+$23.15

Record

53%

13577-12018 (25595)

SnakeBallCTR

Invested

$279.18

Value

$284.35

PnL

+$5.17

Record

50%

8802-8735 (17537)

LeLynxMalynxCTR

Invested

$185.25

Value

$193.05

PnL

+$7.8

Record

54%

13809-11592 (25401)

slimjoeCTR

Invested

$157.41

Value

$163.35

PnL

+$5.94

Record

52%

5352-4963 (10315)

0xheavy888CTR

Invested

$106

Value

$110

PnL

+$4

Record

56%

6353-5083 (11436)

HRTrading<$100

Yes

Invested

$4.82

Value

$4.52

PnL

-$0.3

Record

58%

1460-1073 (2533)

Research grade

NeutralYes at 51%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢0.50–0.70 lost −3.2 % a trade pooled (n 3,834).

Smart Money Signal

Yes

3 of 11 top traders (27%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed8 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

1 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

14% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 100% · 3

Diverging

ctrNo 100% · 3

Diverging

Hand-pickedNo 100% · 5

Diverging

Top 1000No 67% · 3

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance52.7%

50.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$89.58

Max Loss

-$100.00

189.6

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.