Will FC Groningen win on 2026-10-25?

7 of 13 top Polymarket traders hold No (54%) · No at 92¢ · $7K held · ended Oct 25

Yes8¢No92¢Ended Sun, Oct 25, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 54%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$7.0K

Combined PnL

-$721.04

Smart Money Entry

67¢ → 92¢

+37% since entry · 7 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 92%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)0.70–0.90 was about break-even after costs, +0.4 % a trade (n 4,327); 0.60–0.95 with 70 %+ and $10k+ +2.9 % (n 955). The consensus beats its price by 2–3 points here, about what the costs take.

Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

7 of 13 top traders (54%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed6 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes8%

No92%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No7 traders

Total Value$4.9K

Total Shares5,880

Combined PnL$-1.0K

Yes6 traders

Total Value$796.26

Total Shares1,119

Combined PnL+$323.28

No — 54%Yes — 46%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
GO GoalLineGhost	Noavg 79.9¢	$4.6K	$3.3K	$-1.3K	52% 16287-14836 (31123)
RN1ARB<$100	Yesavg 18¢	$859.79	$1.3K	+$440.97	55% 43540-35826 (79366)
└ No leg	Noavg 24.1¢	$190.42	$650.95	+$460.54
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 18¢	$669.37	$649.8	-$19.57
UP UpTheBlues	Noavg 58.9¢	$710.48	$865.39	+$154.91	68% 31167-14971 (46138)
LI Lilybaeum	Noavg 67¢	$418.45	$552.49	+$134.04	65% 12547-6672 (19219)
VeryLucky888CTR	Yesavg 30¢	$180	$438	+$246	58% 31667-22925 (54592)
LU LuckyLoo	Noavg 26¢	$234.39	$243.41	+$9.02	50% 7761-7812 (15573)
FO fooooolCTR	Yesavg 75¢	$174.93	$170.27	-$4.66	51% 6565-6327 (12892)
LE LeLynxMalynxCTR	Yesavg 31.6¢	$72.77	$168	+$82.58	54% 13815-11594 (25409)
12 123987456CTR<$100	Yesavg 52¢	$10.4	$14.6	+$4.2	46% 1531-1778 (3309)
0X 0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846<$100	Noavg 78¢	$17.09	$9.53	-$7.56	63% 22592-13331 (35923)
BE BetzikoCTR<$100	Yesavg 41¢	$8.2	$3.6	-$4.6	55% 4845-4030 (8875)
SN SnakeBallCTR<$100	Yesavg 13¢	$2.02	$1.79	-$0.23	50% 8808-8746 (17554)
HRTrading<$100	Noavg 52¢	$2.88	$1.5	-$1.38	58% 1472-1088 (2560)
BI BillBenter2026<$100	Noavg 38¢	$1.9	$1.35	-$0.55	58% 16138-11779 (27917)

GoalLineGhost

Invested

$4,603.03

Value

$3.3K

PnL

$-1.3K

Record

52%

16287-14836 (31123)

RN1ARB<$100

Yes

Invested

$859.79

Value

$1.3K

PnL

+$440.97

Record

55%

43540-35826 (79366)

Both legs:

No$190.4224.1¢+$460.54

Yes$669.3718¢-$19.57

UpTheBlues

Invested

$710.48

Value

$865.39

PnL

+$154.91

Record

68%

31167-14971 (46138)

Lilybaeum

Invested

$418.45

Value

$552.49

PnL

+$134.04

Record

65%

12547-6672 (19219)

VeryLucky888CTR

Yes

Invested

$180

Value

$438

PnL

+$246

Record

58%

31667-22925 (54592)

LuckyLoo

Invested

$234.39

Value

$243.41

PnL

+$9.02

Record

50%

7761-7812 (15573)

fooooolCTR

Yes

Invested

$174.93

Value

$170.27

PnL

-$4.66

Record

51%

6565-6327 (12892)

LeLynxMalynxCTR

Yes

Invested

$72.77

Value

$168

PnL

+$82.58

Record

54%

13815-11594 (25409)

123987456CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$10.4

Value

$14.6

PnL

+$4.2

Record

46%

1531-1778 (3309)

0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846<$100

Invested

$17.09

Value

$9.53

PnL

-$7.56

Record

63%

22592-13331 (35923)

BetzikoCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$8.2

Value

$3.6

PnL

-$4.6

Record

55%

4845-4030 (8875)

SnakeBallCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$2.02

Value

$1.79

PnL

-$0.23

Record

50%

8808-8746 (17554)

HRTrading<$100

Invested

$2.88

Value

$1.5

PnL

-$1.38

Record

58%

1472-1088 (2560)

BillBenter2026<$100

Invested

$1.9

Value

$1.35

PnL

-$0.55

Record

58%

16138-11779 (27917)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 92%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)0.70–0.90 was about break-even after costs, +0.4 % a trade (n 4,327); 0.60–0.95 with 70 %+ and $10k+ +2.9 % (n 955). The consensus beats its price by 2–3 points here, about what the costs take.

Smart Money Signal

7 of 13 top traders (54%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed6 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance93.3%

92.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.3¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$7.15

Max Loss

-$100.00

107.2

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.