Will NEC vs. FC Groningen end in a draw?

6 of 12 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (50%) · Yes at 73¢ · $5K held · ended Oct 25

Yes73¢No27¢Ended Sun, Oct 25, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 50%

Total Value

$4.8K

Combined PnL

$591.41

Smart Money Entry

45.6¢ → 73¢

+60% since entry · 6 traders

Research grade

NeutralYes at 73%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)0.70–0.90 was about break-even after costs, +0.4 % a trade (n 4,327); 0.60–0.95 with 70 %+ and $10k+ +2.9 % (n 955). The consensus beats its price by 2–3 points here, about what the costs take.

Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

6 of 12 top traders (50%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes73%

No27%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes6 traders

Total Value$2.9K

Total Shares4,722

Combined PnL+$724

No6 traders

Total Value$1.9K

Total Shares3,391

Combined PnL-$132.59

Yes — 50%No — 50%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
UP UpTheBlues	Yesavg 42.5¢	$1.1K	$1.8K	+$715.09	68% 31167-14971 (46138)
RN1CTR	Noavg 53.7¢	$1.4K	$1.2K	-$159.68	55% 43540-35826 (79366)
IM impaul	Yesavg 50¢	$1.0K	$980	-$20	62% 179-110 (289)
0X 0x5b624e3E0426F7AA2Ca57F7451fbcEa4b125D87f-1769796221989CTR	Noavg 75¢	$225	$249	+$4.5	69% 4268-1921 (6189)
us391CTR	Noavg 76¢	$185.31	$202.38	+$17.07	52% 1356-1270 (2626)
GO GoalLineGhost<$100	Yesavg 43¢	$63.89	$97.43	+$33.54	52% 16287-14836 (31123)
CA CannaeCTR<$100	Noavg 75¢	$81.62	$90.33	+$0.54	53% 13578-12019 (25597)
12 123987456CTR<$100	Noavg 64.3¢	$76.7	$82.32	+$5.62	46% 1531-1778 (3309)
BE Betziko<$100	Yesavg 35.1¢	$39.38	$34.96	-$4.43	55% 4845-4030 (8875)
GH ghostorderCTR<$100	Noavg 85¢	$27.14	$26.5	-$0.64	68% 3930-1880 (5810)
FO foooool<$100	Yesavg 49¢	$3.36	$3.36	-$0	51% 6565-6327 (12892)
BI BillBenter2026<$100	Yesavg 21¢	$1.05	$0.85	-$0.2	58% 16138-11779 (27917)

UpTheBlues

Yes

Invested

$1,068.51

Value

$1.8K

PnL

+$715.09

Record

68%

31167-14971 (46138)

RN1CTR

Invested

$1,398.69

Value

$1.2K

PnL

-$159.68

Record

55%

43540-35826 (79366)

impaul

Yes

Invested

$1,000

Value

$980

PnL

-$20

Record

62%

179-110 (289)

0x5b624e3E0426F7AA2Ca57F7451fbcEa4b125D87f-1769796221989CTR

Invested

$225

Value

$249

PnL

+$4.5

Record

69%

4268-1921 (6189)

us391CTR

Invested

$185.31

Value

$202.38

PnL

+$17.07

Record

52%

1356-1270 (2626)

GoalLineGhost<$100

Yes

Invested

$63.89

Value

$97.43

PnL

+$33.54

Record

52%

16287-14836 (31123)

CannaeCTR<$100

Invested

$81.62

Value

$90.33

PnL

+$0.54

Record

53%

13578-12019 (25597)

123987456CTR<$100

Invested

$76.7

Value

$82.32

PnL

+$5.62

Record

46%

1531-1778 (3309)

Betziko<$100

Yes

Invested

$39.38

Value

$34.96

PnL

-$4.43

Record

55%

4845-4030 (8875)

ghostorderCTR<$100

Invested

$27.14

Value

$26.5

PnL

-$0.64

Record

68%

3930-1880 (5810)

foooool<$100

Yes

Invested

$3.36

Value

$3.36

PnL

-$0

Record

51%

6565-6327 (12892)

BillBenter2026<$100

Yes

Invested

$1.05

Value

$0.85

PnL

-$0.2

Record

58%

16138-11779 (27917)

Research grade

NeutralYes at 73%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)0.70–0.90 was about break-even after costs, +0.4 % a trade (n 4,327); 0.60–0.95 with 70 %+ and $10k+ +2.9 % (n 955). The consensus beats its price by 2–3 points here, about what the costs take.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

6 of 12 top traders (50%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance75.0%

73.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$33.40

Max Loss

-$100.00

133.4

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.