NEC vs. FC Groningen: Both Teams to Score

3 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (50%) · Yes at 68¢ · $3K held · ended Oct 25

Yes68¢No32¢Ended Sun, Oct 25, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 50%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$3.3K

Combined PnL

-$446.78

Smart Money Entry

69.2¢ → 68¢

-2% since entry · 3 traders

Research grade

NeutralYes at 68%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)0.70–0.90 was about break-even after costs, +0.4 % a trade (n 4,327); 0.60–0.95 with 70 %+ and $10k+ +2.9 % (n 955). The consensus beats its price by 2–3 points here, about what the costs take.

Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

3 of 6 top traders (50%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes68%

No32%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No3 traders

Total Value$1.1K

Total Shares3,583

Combined PnL+$22.21

Yes3 traders

Total Value$2.1K

Total Shares3,661

Combined PnL-$468.99

No — 50%Yes — 50%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
UP UpTheBluesCTR	Noavg 30.9¢	$1.1K	$1.1K	+$21.36	68% 31119-14954 (46073)
DA darkumbreon88	Yesavg 69¢	$1.3K	$953.42	-$349.27	65% 1534-821 (2355)
0xheavy888	Yesavg 69.4¢	$832.59	$821.95	-$10.64	56% 6353-5083 (11436)
VeryLucky888	Yesavg 69.6¢	$435.61	$289.59	-$109.08	58% 31642-22900 (54542)
LE LeLynxMalynxARB<$100	Yesavg 69¢	$84.46	$96.67	+$12.21	54% 13809-11592 (25401)
└ No leg	Noavg 31¢	$40.3	$64.35	+$24.05
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 69¢	$44.16	$32.32	-$11.84
SN SnakeBallCTR<$100	Noavg 31¢	$2.14	$2.17	+$0.03	50% 8802-8735 (17537)
HRTradingCTR<$100	Noavg 29¢	$1.16	$1.98	+$0.82	58% 1460-1073 (2533)

UpTheBluesCTR

Invested

$1,103.82

Value

$1.1K

PnL

+$21.36

Record

68%

31119-14954 (46073)

darkumbreon88

Yes

Invested

$1,302.69

Value

$953.42

PnL

-$349.27

Record

65%

1534-821 (2355)

0xheavy888

Yes

Invested

$832.59

Value

$821.95

PnL

-$10.64

Record

56%

6353-5083 (11436)

VeryLucky888

Yes

Invested

$435.61

Value

$289.59

PnL

-$109.08

Record

58%

31642-22900 (54542)

LeLynxMalynxARB<$100

Yes

Invested

$84.46

Value

$96.67

PnL

+$12.21

Record

54%

13809-11592 (25401)

Both legs:

No$40.331¢+$24.05

Yes$44.1669¢-$11.84

SnakeBallCTR<$100

Invested

$2.14

Value

$2.17

PnL

+$0.03

Record

50%

8802-8735 (17537)

HRTradingCTR<$100

Invested

$1.16

Value

$1.98

PnL

+$0.82

Record

58%

1460-1073 (2533)

Research grade

NeutralYes at 68%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)0.70–0.90 was about break-even after costs, +0.4 % a trade (n 4,327); 0.60–0.95 with 70 %+ and $10k+ +2.9 % (n 955). The consensus beats its price by 2–3 points here, about what the costs take.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

3 of 6 top traders (50%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance70.1%

68.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$42.72

Max Loss

-$100.00

142.7

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.