Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Over, while the market favors Under (73%). 2 of 2 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
FC Groningen vs. FC Twente: O/U 4.5
2 of 2 top Polymarket traders hold Over (100%) · Over at 27¢ · $4K held · ended Sep 6
⚠️
Avoid
Over
2
Over 100%
$3.7K
$-9.9K
72.6¢ → 27¢
-63% since entry · 2 traders
Research grade
AvoidOver at 27%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the trading costs in the backtests.
- Consensus side under 30¢Longshots (0.05–0.30) lost −29.5 % a trade pooled (n 1,625; −22 % in spring, −35 % in October): the strongest effect in the backtests.
- Spread or totalSpreads and totals: −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 2 top traders (100%)Underdog side (market favors Under 73%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0xB985b597F5598a975C42032749386D765826B70d-1781959038065CTR | Overavg 64¢ | $5.7K | $2.4K | $-5.7K | 63% 226-130 (356) |
MA MagnabelliCTR | Overavg 88.6¢ | $4.2K | $1.3K | $-4.2K | 78% 612-172 (784) |
Chat
Sign in with your wallet to post.
EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
27.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.