Will FC Twente win on 2026-10-25?
2 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold No (33%) · No at 66¢ · $1K held · ends Oct 25
⚖️
Neutral
No
6
No 33%
2 arb excluded
$1.3K
-$48.08
66.5¢ → 65.5¢
-1% since entry · 2 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 66%
No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Favourite (60–95¢)0.70–0.90 was about break-even after costs, +0.4 % a trade (n 4,327); 0.60–0.95 with 70 %+ and $10k+ +2.9 % (n 955). The consensus beats its price by 2–3 points here, about what the costs take.
Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 6 top traders (33%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 VeryLucky888 | Noavg 66.8¢ | $500.67 | $391.88 | -$8.99 | 58% 31904-23124 (55028) |
UP UpTheBluesCTR | Yesavg 32.9¢ | $410.54 | $374.18 | -$36.36 | 67% 31285-15084 (46369) |
 0xheavy888 | Noavg 66¢ | $264 | $262 | -$2 | 56% 6385-5115 (11500) |
LE LeLynxMalynxARB<$100 | Noavg 65¢ | $105.85 | $114.05 | +$8.2 | 54% 13884-11640 (25524) |
| └ Yes leg | Yesavg 30¢ | $51.9 | $59.68 | +$7.78 | |
| └ No leg | Noavg 65¢ | $53.95 | $54.37 | +$0.41 | |
CA CannaeARB<$100 | Noavg 65¢ | $102.01 | $109.12 | +$7.12 | 53% 13609-12050 (25659) |
| └ No leg | Noavg 65¢ | $57.51 | $57.95 | +$0.44 | |
| └ Yes leg | Yesavg 30¢ | $44.49 | $51.17 | +$6.67 | |
 HRTradingCTR<$100 | Yesavg 33.5¢ | $7.2 | $6.45 | -$0.75 | 57% 1578-1171 (2749) |
SE sentrioCTR<$100 | Yesavg 30¢ | $3.32 | $3.32 | +$0 | 49% 11054-11399 (22453) |
KY Kyn008CTR<$100 | Yesavg 31¢ | $1.55 | $1.5 | +$0.03 | 50% 194-191 (385) |
VeryLucky888Invested
$500.67
Value
$391.88
PnL
-$8.99
Record
58%
31904-23124 (55028)
Invested
$410.54
Value
$374.18
PnL
-$36.36
Record
67%
31285-15084 (46369)
0xheavy888Invested
$264
Value
$262
PnL
-$2
Record
56%
6385-5115 (11500)
Invested
$105.85
Value
$114.05
PnL
+$8.2
Record
54%
13884-11640 (25524)
Both legs:
Invested
$102.01
Value
$109.12
PnL
+$7.12
Record
53%
13609-12050 (25659)
Both legs:
HRTradingCTR<$100Invested
$7.2
Value
$6.45
PnL
-$0.75
Record
57%
1578-1171 (2749)
Invested
$3.32
Value
$3.32
PnL
+$0
Record
49%
11054-11399 (22453)
Invested
$1.55
Value
$1.5
PnL
+$0.03
Record
50%
194-191 (385)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
65.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.