AZ vs. FC Twente: O/U 4.5

4 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold Under (57%) · Under at 77¢ · $4K held · ends Oct 25

Over24¢Under76¢Ends Sun, Oct 25, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Under

Consensus Traders

Under 57%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$3.9K

Combined PnL

$29.95

Smart Money Entry

76¢ → 76.5¢

+1% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 77%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Spread or totalSpreads and totals: −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)0.70–0.90 was about break-even after costs, +0.4 % a trade (n 4,327); 0.60–0.95 with 70 %+ and $10k+ +2.9 % (n 955). The consensus beats its price by 2–3 points here, about what the costs take.

Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Under

4 of 7 top traders (57%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Over24%

Under77%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Under4 traders

Total Value$2.7K

Total Shares3,522

Combined PnL+$4.16

Over3 traders

Total Value$943.82

Total Shares3,840

Combined PnL+$25.79

Under — 57%Over — 43%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
GO GoalLineGhost	Underavg 76¢	$951.33	$945.07	-$6.26	52% 16365-14925 (31290)
0X 0xE5F0AE9cc9aeF77ae3c2A64c9E69caa3F335dc1d-1773531520731CTR	Overavg 24¢	$918.3	$937.43	+$19.13	41% 514-751 (1265)
SN SnakeBall	Underavg 76¢	$901.93	$907.86	+$5.93	50% 8893-8828 (17721)
LU LuckyLoo	Underavg 76¢	$650.56	$654.84	+$4.28	50% 7794-7854 (15648)
0xheavy888ARB<$100	Underavg 75¢	$250	$251	+$1	56% 6385-5115 (11500)
└ Under leg	Underavg 75¢	$150	$149	-$1
└ Over leg	Overavg 25¢	$100	$102	+$2
LE LeLynxMalynx	Underavg 75.6¢	$201.18	$201.39	+$0.2	54% 13884-11640 (25524)
HRTradingCTR<$100	Overavg 25¢	$6.02	$6.06	+$0.04	57% 1578-1171 (2749)
VeryLucky888CTR<$100	Overavg 23¢	$76.2	$0.32	+$6.62	58% 31904-23124 (55028)

GoalLineGhost

Under

Invested

$951.33

Value

$945.07

PnL

-$6.26

Record

52%

16365-14925 (31290)

0xE5F0AE9cc9aeF77ae3c2A64c9E69caa3F335dc1d-1773531520731CTR

Over

Invested

$918.3

Value

$937.43

PnL

+$19.13

Record

41%

514-751 (1265)

SnakeBall

Under

Invested

$901.93

Value

$907.86

PnL

+$5.93

Record

50%

8893-8828 (17721)

LuckyLoo

Under

Invested

$650.56

Value

$654.84

PnL

+$4.28

Record

50%

7794-7854 (15648)

0xheavy888ARB<$100

Under

Invested

$250

Value

$251

PnL

+$1

Record

56%

6385-5115 (11500)

Both legs:

Invested

$201.18

Value

$201.39

PnL

+$0.2

Record

54%

13884-11640 (25524)

HRTradingCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$6.02

Value

$6.06

PnL

+$0.04

Record

57%

1578-1171 (2749)

VeryLucky888CTR<$100

Over

Invested

$76.2

Value

$0.32

PnL

+$6.62

Record

58%

31904-23124 (55028)

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 77%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Spread or totalSpreads and totals: −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)0.70–0.90 was about break-even after costs, +0.4 % a trade (n 4,327); 0.60–0.95 with 70 %+ and $10k+ +2.9 % (n 955). The consensus beats its price by 2–3 points here, about what the costs take.

Smart Money Signal

Under

4 of 7 top traders (57%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Under wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance78.4%

76.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.9¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$27.60

Max Loss

-$100.00

127.6

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.