Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Over, while the market favors Under (57%). 5 of 10 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

AZ vs. FC Twente: O/U 3.5

5 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold Over (50%) · Over at 43¢ · $11K held · ends Oct 25

Over43¢Under57¢Ends Sun, Oct 25, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Over

Consensus Traders

Over 50%

3 arb excluded

Total Value

$11.1K

Combined PnL

-$23.36

Smart Money Entry

43.2¢ → 42.5¢

-2% since entry · 5 traders

Research grade

NeutralOver at 43%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Spread or totalSpreads and totals: −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢0.30–0.50 lost −6.5 % a trade pooled (n 2,793), a little worse than the plain consensus.

Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Over

5 of 10 top traders (50%)Underdog side (market favors Under 57%)3 arbitrage traders dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Over43%

Under57%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Under5 traders

Total Value$4.6K

Total Shares8,047

Combined PnL+$82.99

Over5 traders

Total Value$5.1K

Total Shares12,139

Combined PnL-$106.34

Under — 50%Over — 50%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
VD VD721lsj4938Dk388	Underavg 56.4¢	$3.0K	$3.1K	+$56.41	55% 1306-1048 (2354)
0X 0xE5F0AE9cc9aeF77ae3c2A64c9E69caa3F335dc1d-1773531520731CTR	Overavg 42.7¢	$2.5K	$2.5K	-$12.37	41% 514-751 (1265)
OM omnibus-076daaCTR	Overavg 44¢	$1.4K	$1.3K	-$64.26	59% 13975-9717 (23692)
0X 0x5b624e3E0426F7AA2Ca57F7451fbcEa4b125D87f-1769796221989	Underavg 56¢	$1.1K	$1.2K	+$40	57% 4484-3315 (7799)
RN1CTR	Overavg 43¢	$663.1	$655.39	-$7.71	55% 43817-36057 (79874)
us391CTR	Overavg 44¢	$634.07	$612.45	-$21.62	52% 1362-1272 (2634)
SN SnakeBallARB<$100	Underavg 58¢	$573.24	$559.65	-$13.59	50% 8893-8828 (17721)
└ Under leg	Underavg 58¢	$289.33	$291.87	+$2.54
└ Over leg	Overavg 44¢	$283.91	$267.78	-$16.13
0xheavy888ARB<$100	Underavg 56.5¢	$402	$400	-$2	56% 6385-5115 (11500)
└ Under leg	Underavg 56.5¢	$226	$230	+$4
└ Over leg	Overavg 44¢	$176	$170	-$6
LE LeLynxMalynxARB<$100	Underavg 56.8¢	$361.29	$358.8	-$2.49	54% 13884-11640 (25524)
└ Under leg	Underavg 56.8¢	$218.49	$221.37	+$2.88
└ Over leg	Overavg 44.2¢	$142.8	$137.42	-$5.38
VeryLucky888	Underavg 56.3¢	$1.3K	$345	-$13.5	58% 31904-23124 (55028)
cassandra.torchlight<$100	Underavg 58¢	$50	$50	-$0.43	51% 238-229 (467)
LU LuckyLooCTR<$100	Overavg 44¢	$11.31	$10.93	-$0.39	50% 7794-7854 (15648)
0X 0xfB07F48542d2b655e9D0Bf1cC92a8a6Feee8e2cC-1782415802542<$100	Underavg 55¢	$9.38	$9.89	+$0.51	47% 2015-2254 (4269)

VD721lsj4938Dk388

Under

Invested

$3,016.25

Value

$3.1K

PnL

+$56.41

Record

55%

1306-1048 (2354)

0xE5F0AE9cc9aeF77ae3c2A64c9E69caa3F335dc1d-1773531520731CTR

Over

Invested

$2,527.2

Value

$2.5K

PnL

-$12.37

Record

41%

514-751 (1265)

omnibus-076daaCTR

Over

Invested

$1,413.69

Value

$1.3K

PnL

-$64.26

Record

59%

13975-9717 (23692)

0x5b624e3E0426F7AA2Ca57F7451fbcEa4b125D87f-1769796221989

Under

Invested

$1,120

Value

$1.2K

PnL

+$40

Record

57%

4484-3315 (7799)

RN1CTR

Over

Invested

$663.1

Value

$655.39

PnL

-$7.71

Record

55%

43817-36057 (79874)

us391CTR

Over

Invested

$634.07

Value

$612.45

PnL

-$21.62

Record

52%

1362-1272 (2634)

SnakeBallARB<$100

Under

Invested

$573.24

Value

$559.65

PnL

-$13.59

Record

50%

8893-8828 (17721)

Both legs:

Under$289.3358¢+$2.54

Over$283.9144¢-$16.13

0xheavy888ARB<$100

Under

Invested

$402

Value

$400

PnL

-$2

Record

56%

6385-5115 (11500)

Both legs:

Invested

$361.29

Value

$358.8

PnL

-$2.49

Record

54%

13884-11640 (25524)

Both legs:

Under$218.4956.8¢+$2.88

Over$142.844.2¢-$5.38

VeryLucky888

Under

Invested

$1,288.5

Value

$345

PnL

-$13.5

Record

58%

31904-23124 (55028)

cassandra.torchlight<$100

Under

Invested

$50

Value

$50

PnL

-$0.43

Record

51%

238-229 (467)

LuckyLooCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$11.31

Value

$10.93

PnL

-$0.39

Record

50%

7794-7854 (15648)

0xfB07F48542d2b655e9D0Bf1cC92a8a6Feee8e2cC-1782415802542<$100

Under

Invested

$9.38

Value

$9.89

PnL

+$0.51

Record

47%

2015-2254 (4269)

Research grade

NeutralOver at 43%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Spread or totalSpreads and totals: −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢0.30–0.50 lost −6.5 % a trade pooled (n 2,793), a little worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

Over

5 of 10 top traders (50%)Underdog side (market favors Under 57%)3 arbitrage traders dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Over wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance44.7%

42.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$123.57

Max Loss

-$100.00

223.6

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.