AZ vs. FC Twente: O/U 2.5

8 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold Under (100%) · Under at 80¢ · $8K held · ended Oct 25

Over21¢Under79¢Ended Sun, Oct 25, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Under

Consensus Traders

Under 100%

2 arb excluded

Total Value

$7.9K

Combined PnL

-$161.42

Smart Money Entry

67.3¢ → 79.5¢

+18% since entry · 8 traders

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 80%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Spread or totalSpreads and totals: −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Favourite (60–95¢)0.70–0.90 was about break-even after costs, +0.4 % a trade (n 4,327); 0.60–0.95 with 70 %+ and $10k+ +2.9 % (n 955). The consensus beats its price by 2–3 points here, about what the costs take.

Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Under

8 of 8 top traders (100%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Over21%

Under80%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Under8 traders

Total Value$7.4K

Total Shares8,682

Combined PnL-$161.42

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+17 pts consensus

Breadth

2 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

67% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrUnder 67% · 3

Aligned

Hand-pickedUnder 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Under 50% · 2

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
SN SnakeBall	Underavg 67.9¢	$2.2K	$2.1K	-$175.7	50% 8953-8892 (17845)
LI Lilybaeum	Underavg 73.5¢	$2.2K	$1.8K	-$432.31	65% 12582-6711 (19293)
LU LuckyLoo	Underavg 79.9¢	$1.6K	$1.6K	+$2.23	50% 7831-7882 (15713)
UP UpTheBlues	Underavg 60.4¢	$1.2K	$1.5K	+$370.41	68% 31590-15191 (46781)
VeryLucky888	Underavg 34.9¢	$387.47	$265.55	+$66.55	58% 32113-23268 (55381)
LE LeLynxMalynxARB<$100	Overavg 64¢	$243.14	$257.08	+$13.94	54% 13985-11704 (25689)
└ Under leg	Underavg 34.7¢	$107.46	$142.6	+$35.14
└ Over leg	Overavg 64¢	$135.68	$114.48	-$21.2
0xheavy888ARB<$100	Overavg 66¢	$207.59	$206.21	-$1.38	56% 6406-5129 (11535)
└ Over leg	Overavg 66¢	$139.59	$114.21	-$25.38
└ Under leg	Underavg 34¢	$68	$92	+$24
FO foooool	Underavg 42.7¢	$102.65	$109.17	+$6.52	51% 6747-6475 (13222)
HRTrading<$100	Underavg 47.5¢	$7.59	$10.75	+$2.64	57% 1670-1266 (2936)
RN1<$100	Underavg 60¢	$7.5	$5.75	-$1.75	55% 44092-36295 (80387)

SnakeBall

Under

Invested

$2,236.89

Value

$2.1K

PnL

-$175.7

Record

50%

8953-8892 (17845)

Lilybaeum

Under

Invested

$2,213.11

Value

$1.8K

PnL

-$432.31

Record

65%

12582-6711 (19293)

LuckyLoo

Under

Invested

$1,616.74

Value

$1.6K

PnL

+$2.23

Record

50%

7831-7882 (15713)

UpTheBlues

Under

Invested

$1,168.71

Value

$1.5K

PnL

+$370.41

Record

68%

31590-15191 (46781)

VeryLucky888

Under

Invested

$387.47

Value

$265.55

PnL

+$66.55

Record

58%

32113-23268 (55381)

LeLynxMalynxARB<$100

Over

Invested

$243.14

Value

$257.08

PnL

+$13.94

Record

54%

13985-11704 (25689)

Both legs:

Under$107.4634.7¢+$35.14

Over$135.6864¢-$21.2

0xheavy888ARB<$100

Over

Invested

$207.59

Value

$206.21

PnL

-$1.38

Record

56%

6406-5129 (11535)

Both legs:

Over$139.5966¢-$25.38

Under$6834¢+$24

foooool

Under

Invested

$102.65

Value

$109.17

PnL

+$6.52

Record

51%

6747-6475 (13222)

HRTrading<$100

Under

Invested

$7.59

Value

$10.75

PnL

+$2.64

Record

57%

1670-1266 (2936)

RN1<$100

Under

Invested

$7.5

Value

$5.75

PnL

-$1.75

Record

55%

44092-36295 (80387)

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 80%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Spread or totalSpreads and totals: −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Favourite (60–95¢)0.70–0.90 was about break-even after costs, +0.4 % a trade (n 4,327); 0.60–0.95 with 70 %+ and $10k+ +2.9 % (n 955). The consensus beats its price by 2–3 points here, about what the costs take.

Smart Money Signal

Under

8 of 8 top traders (100%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+17 pts consensus

Breadth

2 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

67% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrUnder 67% · 3

Aligned

Hand-pickedUnder 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Under 50% · 2

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Under wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance81.3%

79.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.8¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$23.02

Max Loss

-$100.00

123.0

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.