Will AZ vs. FC Twente end in a draw?

7 of 13 top Polymarket traders hold No (54%) · No at 60¢ · $14K held · ended Oct 25

Yes41¢No59¢Ended Sun, Oct 25, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 54%

2 arb excluded

Total Value

$14.5K

Combined PnL

$56.87

Smart Money Entry

64.3¢ → 59.5¢

-7% since entry · 7 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 60%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢0.50–0.70 lost −3.2 % a trade pooled (n 3,834).

Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

7 of 13 top traders (54%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed6 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes41%

No60%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No7 traders

Total Value$12.3K

Total Shares19,346

Combined PnL-$96.07

Yes6 traders

Total Value$1.6K

Total Shares4,118

Combined PnL+$152.94

No — 54%Yes — 46%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 98%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

100% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 98% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 100% · 2

Aligned

ctrNo 100% · 3

Aligned

Hand-pickedNo 100% · 3

Aligned

Top 1000No 100% · 2

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0xB985b597F5598a975C42032749386D765826B70d-1781959038065	Noavg 64¢	$12.0K	$11.9K	-$94	61% 185-120 (305)
UP UpTheBluesCTR	Yesavg 35.9¢	$1.1K	$1.3K	+$143.29	68% 31590-15191 (46781)
RN1ARB<$100	Yesavg 36.2¢	$423.5	$454.27	+$30.77	55% 44092-36295 (80387)
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 36.2¢	$270.17	$302.21	+$32.04
└ No leg	Noavg 60¢	$153.33	$152.05	-$1.28
VeryLucky888	Noavg 74¢	$200.43	$200.43	-$0	58% 32113-23268 (55381)
HRTradingCTR	Yesavg 36¢	$196.38	$199.11	+$2.73	57% 1670-1266 (2936)
0X 0x5b624e3E0426F7AA2Ca57F7451fbcEa4b125D87f-1769796221989	Noavg 75¢	$193.01	$190.44	-$2.57	57% 4519-3341 (7860)
LE LeLynxMalynxARB<$100	Noavg 75¢	$85.58	$84.86	-$0.72	54% 13985-11704 (25689)
└ No leg	Noavg 75¢	$54	$53.28	-$0.72
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 24¢	$31.58	$31.58	+$0
FO fooooolCTR<$100	Yesavg 36¢	$74.88	$75.92	+$1.04	51% 6747-6475 (13222)
12 123987456CTR<$100	Yesavg 30.4¢	$68	$74.9	+$6.9	46% 1542-1790 (3332)
RA rabbitfoot1CTR<$100	Yesavg 29¢	$7	$6.28	-$0.72	54% 931-808 (1739)
LU LuckyLoo<$100	Noavg 66¢	$3.88	$4.35	+$0.47	50% 7831-7882 (15713)
BI BillBenter2026CTR<$100	Yesavg 28¢	$4.2	$3.9	-$0.3	58% 16221-11850 (28071)
BE Betziko<$100	Noavg 60¢	$3	$3.05	+$0.05	55% 4919-4092 (9011)
0xheavy888<$100	Noavg 75¢	$3.06	$3.02	-$0.04	56% 6406-5129 (11535)
CA Cannae<$100	Noavg 75¢	$3	$2.96	+$0.02	53% 13639-12083 (25722)

0xB985b597F5598a975C42032749386D765826B70d-1781959038065

Invested

$12,031.54

Value

$11.9K

PnL

-$94

Record

61%

185-120 (305)

UpTheBluesCTR

Yes

Invested

$1,112.86

Value

$1.3K

PnL

+$143.29

Record

68%

31590-15191 (46781)

RN1ARB<$100

Yes

Invested

$423.5

Value

$454.27

PnL

+$30.77

Record

55%

44092-36295 (80387)

Both legs:

Yes$270.1736.2¢+$32.04

No$153.3360¢-$1.28

VeryLucky888

Invested

$200.43

Value

$200.43

PnL

-$0

Record

58%

32113-23268 (55381)

HRTradingCTR

Yes

Invested

$196.38

Value

$199.11

PnL

+$2.73

Record

57%

1670-1266 (2936)

0x5b624e3E0426F7AA2Ca57F7451fbcEa4b125D87f-1769796221989

Invested

$193.01

Value

$190.44

PnL

-$2.57

Record

57%

4519-3341 (7860)

LeLynxMalynxARB<$100

Invested

$85.58

Value

$84.86

PnL

-$0.72

Record

54%

13985-11704 (25689)

Both legs:

Invested

$74.88

Value

$75.92

PnL

+$1.04

Record

51%

6747-6475 (13222)

123987456CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$68

Value

$74.9

PnL

+$6.9

Record

46%

1542-1790 (3332)

rabbitfoot1CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

Value

$6.28

PnL

-$0.72

Record

54%

931-808 (1739)

LuckyLoo<$100

Invested

$3.88

Value

$4.35

PnL

+$0.47

Record

50%

7831-7882 (15713)

BillBenter2026CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$4.2

Value

$3.9

PnL

-$0.3

Record

58%

16221-11850 (28071)

Betziko<$100

Invested

Value

$3.05

PnL

+$0.05

Record

55%

4919-4092 (9011)

0xheavy888<$100

Invested

$3.06

Value

$3.02

PnL

-$0.04

Record

56%

6406-5129 (11535)

Cannae<$100

Invested

Value

$2.96

PnL

+$0.02

Record

53%

13639-12083 (25722)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 60%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢0.50–0.70 lost −3.2 % a trade pooled (n 3,834).

Smart Money Signal

7 of 13 top traders (54%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed6 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 98%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

100% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 98% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 100% · 2

Aligned

ctrNo 100% · 3

Aligned

Hand-pickedNo 100% · 3

Aligned

Top 1000No 100% · 2

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance61.7%

59.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$62.09

Max Loss

-$100.00

162.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.