Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold No, while the market favors Yes (67%). 4 of 6 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
AZ vs. FC Twente: Both Teams to Score
4 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold No (67%) · No at 33¢ · $2K held · ends Oct 25
⚖️
Neutral
No
6
No 67%
$1.8K
-$171.33
38.2¢ → 33¢
-14% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 33%
No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).
- Side priced 30–50¢0.30–0.50 lost −6.5 % a trade pooled (n 2,793), a little worse than the plain consensus.
Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 6 top traders (67%)Underdog side (market favors Yes 67%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
KE keris7CTR | Noavg 39.4¢ | $1.4K | $1.2K | -$172.97 | 54% 104-87 (191) |
 0xheavy888 | Yesavg 67¢ | $275.92 | $278.1 | +$2.18 | 56% 6385-5115 (11500) |
UP UpTheBluesCTR | Noavg 33.3¢ | $250.65 | $244.89 | -$5.76 | 67% 31285-15084 (46369) |
 VeryLucky888 | Yesavg 64.2¢ | $316.05 | $128.99 | +$4.93 | 58% 31904-23124 (55028) |
LU LuckyLooCTR<$100 | Noavg 33¢ | $20.13 | $20.44 | +$0.31 | 50% 7794-7854 (15648) |
LE LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100 | Noavg 33¢ | $5.07 | $5.07 | +$0 | 54% 13884-11640 (25524) |
Invested
$1,390.85
Value
$1.2K
PnL
-$172.97
Record
54%
104-87 (191)
0xheavy888Invested
$275.92
Value
$278.1
PnL
+$2.18
Record
56%
6385-5115 (11500)
Invested
$250.65
Value
$244.89
PnL
-$5.76
Record
67%
31285-15084 (46369)
VeryLucky888Invested
$316.05
Value
$128.99
PnL
+$4.93
Record
58%
31904-23124 (55028)
Invested
$20.13
Value
$20.44
PnL
+$0.31
Record
50%
7794-7854 (15648)
Invested
$5.07
Value
$5.07
PnL
+$0
Record
54%
13884-11640 (25524)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
33.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.