Will AZ win on 2026-10-25?
3 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold No (50%) · No at 56¢ · $284 held · ends Oct 25
⚖️
Neutral
No
6
No 50%
$283.98
$3.42
54.9¢ → 55.5¢
+1% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 56%
No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Side priced 50–60¢0.50–0.70 lost −3.2 % a trade pooled (n 3,834).
Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 6 top traders (50%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
2 traders
Top 2 hold 100%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
40% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
KY Kyn008 | Noavg 55¢ | $113.01 | $113.01 | +$1.03 | 50% 192-189 (381) |
 VeryLucky888CTR<$100 | Yesavg 44¢ | $57.62 | $58.93 | +$1.31 | 58% 31731-22975 (54706) |
LE LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100 | Yesavg 44¢ | $37.41 | $37.41 | +$0.43 | 54% 13824-11602 (25426) |
SN SnakeBall<$100 | Noavg 55¢ | $30.12 | $30.12 | +$0 | 50% 8825-8766 (17591) |
FO Forecastication2CTR<$100 | Yesavg 45¢ | $28.8 | $28.16 | +$0.32 | 61% 4553-2878 (7431) |
CA Cannae<$100 | Noavg 54.4¢ | $16.18 | $16.37 | +$0.34 | 53% 13585-12026 (25611) |
Invested
$113.01
Value
$113.01
PnL
+$1.03
Record
50%
192-189 (381)
VeryLucky888CTR<$100Invested
$57.62
Value
$58.93
PnL
+$1.31
Record
58%
31731-22975 (54706)
Invested
$37.41
Value
$37.41
PnL
+$0.43
Record
54%
13824-11602 (25426)
Invested
$30.12
Value
$30.12
PnL
+$0
Record
50%
8825-8766 (17591)
Invested
$28.8
Value
$28.16
PnL
+$0.32
Record
61%
4553-2878 (7431)
Invested
$16.18
Value
$16.37
PnL
+$0.34
Record
53%
13585-12026 (25611)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
55.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.